PANews reported on January 30 that according to The Block, Wall Street research firm Benchmark released a report arguing that the threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin is “long-standing and manageable”, refuting the growing panic in the market. Analysts pointed out that quantum computing does pose a theoretical vulnerability to Bitcoin cryptography, but actual attacks are likely to take “decades rather than years” to give the network plenty of time to upgrade and respond. In theory, only those addresses where the public key has been exposed (such as reused addresses or early “Satoshi era” wallets) are at risk, not the full supply. The report cites estimates from some researchers that such vulnerable addresses may contain between 1 million and 2 million Bitcoins, which is more conservative than some estimates of about 7 million.
There is a huge divide in the industry on the threat timeline: venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has predicted that the threat could appear in the next two to five years, while long-time Bitcoin contributor Adam Back believes that the risk may not become a reality until 20 to 40 years later. The Benchmark report emphasizes that the Bitcoin network is not rigid and has dealt with substantial risks through upgrades such as Taproot in the past, and the transition to quantum-resistant algorithms is expected to follow a similar gradual path.
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