February 2 News, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are under unprecedented capital pressure. Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn pointed out that last month, ETFs experienced the second and third largest single-week capital outflows in history, causing Bitcoin prices to fall below the average holding cost of institutional investors.
Data shows that currently, the total assets under management of US spot Bitcoin ETFs are about $113 billion, holding approximately 1.28 million Bitcoins, with an estimated average entry price of around $87,830, significantly higher than the current market price range of $74,000 to $76,000. This indicates that overall ETF investors are in a paper loss position.
Bitcoin dropped about 11% over the weekend, falling from nearly $84,000 to $74,600, hitting a nine-month low. Thorn stated that this level has confirmed that “ETF buyers are overall underwater.”
From a capital perspective, selling pressure continues. According to Coinglass, over the past two weeks, 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net outflow of about $2.8 billion, with $1.49 billion in the most recent week and $1.32 billion in the previous week. This contrasts sharply with the continuous capital inflows at the end of last year.
Despite this, the ETF net inflow has only fallen about 12% from its peak, while Bitcoin prices have dropped nearly 40% during the same period. This suggests that some long-term holders are still choosing to wait and see rather than exit in large numbers. However, Nick Ruck, head of LVRG Research, warned that if demand remains unrestored, the market could enter a longer-term downturn.
On the other hand, institutions are still planning for the future. Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer of ProCap, believes that the Bitcoin ETF planned by Morgan Stanley is more of a strategic move to strengthen its influence in the digital asset field rather than a short-term scale expansion.
Next, whether ETF capital flows can stop falling will be an important indicator to judge whether Bitcoin can stabilize.
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