US Small Non-Farm "ADP Employment Data" Far Below Expectations! The market bets no rate cuts before June, Bitcoin dips below 75,000, and Ethereum falls below $2200

U.S. January ADP Employment Report Shows Private Sector Adds Far Fewer Jobs Than Expected, Signaling Clear Cooling in the Labor Market and Companies Becoming More Cautious in Hiring
(Background: How Will the Contradictory “Rate Cut + Balance Sheet Reduction” Strategy of Fed Chair Powell Affect Stocks, Bonds, the Dollar, and Crypto Markets?)
(Additional Context: Breaking News! Trump Nominates Kevin Waugh to Lead the Federal Reserve, Increasing the Probability of a Rate Cut in June to Nearly 50%)

Table of Contents

• Sector Performance Diverges, Education and Healthcare Lead
• Rate Cut Outlook Still Unclear
• Bitcoin Short-Term Decline

The January ADP employment report indicates that employment growth in the private sector has significantly slowed, far below market expectations, reflecting a cooling labor market and reduced corporate hiring intentions.

According to the ADP report released on February 4, 2026, U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, well below the market forecast of 45,000 to 48,000. The previous figure for December, after revision, was 37,000, showing a notable slowdown this month.

Sector Performance Diverges, Education and Healthcare Lead

In terms of industry details, education and healthcare services became the main support, adding a substantial 74,000 jobs this month. Excluding this contribution, overall employment data might turn negative. Conversely, manufacturing has shown negative growth for several consecutive months, decreasing by 8,000 jobs this month; professional and business services cut 57,000 jobs; construction added a modest 9,000 jobs, while financial activities increased by 14,000.

This divergence indicates that defensive sectors like education and healthcare remain resilient, but cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and professional services are becoming more cautious in hiring, reflecting a lack of confidence among businesses about future economic prospects.

In terms of wages, the annual salary growth rate for employed workers in January remained at 4.5%, similar to the previous month, indicating moderate and stable wage increases without signs of acceleration. The overall slowdown in employment growth may further ease inflationary pressures but also increases uncertainty about a soft landing for the economy.

Rate Cut Outlook Still Unclear

Regarding the market focus on rate cuts, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) resuming rate cuts before June this year remains high. However, market opinions are divided on whether the Fed will cut rates at the June meeting: about 44.7% believe rates will stay unchanged, while 44.8% expect a 25 basis point cut, nearly evenly matched. Weak ADP employment data may boost some investors’ expectations of an earlier rate cut, but whether policy needs further easing remains to be confirmed by more evidence.

Bitcoin Short-Term Decline

In the cryptocurrency market, following the release of the ADP report, Bitcoin briefly dropped from the $76,000 level to around $75,000, currently trading at approximately $75,150. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, briefly falling below $2,200 before quickly rebounding, currently at $2,210.