Historical XRP Pattern Suggests When the Ongoing Price Fall May End

XRP appears to be following an ABC correction pattern from the 2021 cycle, which may suggest when and where the asset could form a bottom.

Notably, the XRP downturn has lingered for longer than most investors expected. After the 35.39% decline in the last quarter of 2025, XRP began 2026 with an aggressive recovery attempt, soaring 31% from $1.84 on Jan. 1 to a high of $2.41 five days later, as investors believed the downturn was over. However, this rally met resistance quickly.

XRP has since corrected 41% from the $2.41 high, currently trading for $1.42, a low last seen in November 2024. As the downturn extends to its fifth month, historical data from XRP’s performance in 2021 has hinted that the current bear phase could end in March 2026 at a bottom price of $1.2.

Key Points

• After a turbulent Q4 2025, which led to a 35% drawdown in XRP’s price, a rebound ensued earlier this year, resulting in a 31% recovery.
• While investors believed this marked the end of the downturn, resistance at $2.41 pushed the XRP price back to new lows.
• XRP now changes hands at $1.42, representing its lowest price since the Trump-led rally in November 2024.
• With the downward trend now entering its fifth month, historical data suggests an end could come in March 2026 at a low of $1.2.

XRP Now Close to Multi-Year Support Trendline

This trendline has acted as a solid dynamic support for XRP in times of sustained bearish pressure, sloping higher to present a reasonable cushion at higher lows over the years. Notably, XRP broke below the support trendline when it dropped below $0.6 in April 2024. However, it recovered and soared above it following the November 2024 rally beyond $1.

After this rally, XRP maintained a position far above the support trendline throughout 2025 despite occasional price declines. However, now that the Q4 2025 downtrend has spilled into 2026, leading to lower prices, XRP trades closer to the trendline that it has been since November 2024.

XRP 1W Chart | Charting Guy## XRP Could Bottom at $1.2 in March

Currently, the trendline aligns with the price range around $1.05 to $1.1, while XRP changes hands at $1.43, having dropped by more than 22% this year alone. Interestingly, Charting Guy believes XRP could slope further to actually retest the trendline support, but he suggests that a breakdown may not occur.

According to him, the trendline could push toward the $1.2 price by March 2026, with XRP dropping further to this level. However, he believes this development would mark the bottom for XRP, expecting the multi-year trendline to act as the reliable support that could break the ongoing downtrend.

Notably, for XRP to reach $1.2, it would need to decline by an additional 16% from the current price, a move that would take its year-to-date loss to 34.7%. Nonetheless, if Charting Guy’s suggestion proves true, XRP could recover from this level.

Historical Data from XRP’s 2021 Performance

The analyst’s projection was inspired by historical data from XRP’s 2021 performance. Specifically, during the correction that began in 2021 after XRP collapsed from the $1.96 high in April, the prices saw consistent declines for months. However, when XRP retested the trendline at $0.28 in June 2022, this marked the bottom.

Data from his chart also points to a similar ABC correction that existed in 2021. Specifically, XRP concluded the C wave in June 2022 at the $0.28 bottom. The chart shows XRP currently trades within another C wave, and could end at $1.2, representing the bottom. This aligns with a previous report from The Crypto Basic.