US layoffs surge to a 17-year high! The Federal Reserve may shift to easing, signaling a Bitcoin bottom is near

February 6 News, the U.S. labor market is showing signs of rapid cooling, with the latest layoffs data sparking macroeconomic concerns and also opening up new policy imagination space for Bitcoin price movements. Global career consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released a report stating that in January, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 108,435, a month-on-month increase of 205%, reaching the highest level since 2009.

Compared to the same period last year, this figure has increased by 118%, indicating a significant weakening in labor demand. The technology sector laid off 22,291 employees, with Amazon accounting for the largest share; logistics giant UPS also announced plans to cut 31,243 jobs. Challenger, Gray & Christmas workplace expert Andy Challenger said that January is usually not a peak period for layoffs, and such a large-scale plan to cut jobs suggests that companies lack confidence in the economic outlook for 2026.

This trend contrasts with the official non-farm employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which still depicts a relatively stable employment environment. However, increasing private sector data are sending different signals. Previously, blockchain-based inflation monitoring platform Truflation showed that the U.S. real-time inflation rate has fallen below 1%, while the official CPI remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% policy target.

Multiple “unofficial indicators” weakening simultaneously are causing the market to reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. The current benchmark interest rate remains in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, but signs of economic slowdown may force policymakers to adopt a more dovish stance. For risk assets, this expectation generally provides support.

Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its previous all-time high of over $126,000 and is currently in a consolidation phase. Some analysts believe that if expectations for rate cuts continue to strengthen, it could establish a medium-term price bottom for Bitcoin.

Regarding policy outlooks, market opinions remain divided. JPMorgan expects interest rates to stay unchanged this year, while other investment banks forecast at least two rate cuts within the year. Some economists also point out that Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair nominee proposed by Trump, may push for larger policy adjustments before the midterm elections. As macro signals continue to evolve, Bitcoin is standing at a new critical juncture.