K33: Bitcoin may have already bottomed at $60,000! Multiple historic panic-selling signals have appeared

As Bitcoin’s price sharply declined, approaching $60,000, market sentiment was engulfed in panic. However, research firm K33 pointed out that multiple extreme data points indicate that selling pressure is nearing a “capitulation-like” stage. This intense volatility may actually signal the emergence of a cyclical bottom.

(Background recap: Grayscale: Bitcoin temporarily moves away from the “digital gold” narrative, highly correlated with software tech stocks also impacted by AI?)

(Additional context: Michael Saylor “We will not sell”: Strategy shows a $6.5 billion unrealized loss but remains committed to perpetual Bitcoin accumulation)

Table of Contents

• Spot and Momentum Indicators: Rarely Seen Oversold Levels Reappear
• Derivatives Market Pressure Erupts: Funding Rates Turn Negative, Options Fully Defensive
• ETF Capital Volatility: High Trading Volume and Capital Outflows Coexist
• $60,000 Becomes a Key Zone; Future Market Likely to Enter Consolidation

Last week, Bitcoin experienced a rapid drop, approaching $60,000. K33, a research and brokerage firm, released a report highlighting multiple “capitulation-like” extreme signals across spot, ETF, and derivatives markets. The firm believes this sharp decline likely marks a high-probability cyclical bottom. While some volatility may persist, the risk of a significant drop below recent lows appears limited.

Spot and Momentum Indicators: Rare Oversold Levels Reappear

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, noted that this decline was accompanied by abnormal data, especially extreme volume and momentum indicators. In early February, Bitcoin’s spot trading volume hit the 95th percentile for two consecutive days—an “extreme volume” scenario that has only occurred once in the past five years, during the FTX collapse.

In terms of momentum, Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 15.9, the sixth-lowest on record since 2015. Historically, even lower readings occurred during the March 2020 pandemic crash and the late 2018 bear market, both corresponding to major cyclical lows.

Lunde stated that when volume and RSI simultaneously reach these rare extremes, it often indicates that market sentiment is close to complete capitulation. This “sell-off exhaustion” typically occurs near a cyclical bottom.

Derivatives Market Pressure Erupts: Funding Rates Turn Negative, Options Fully Defensive

Beyond spot markets, derivatives data also reflect intense pressure. Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates on a daily basis briefly hit their lowest since the US banking crisis in March 2023; the seven-day average annualized funding rate also dropped to multi-month lows.

A significant shift to negative funding rates suggests a surge in short-selling sentiment, with bears willing to pay premiums to maintain positions—an indicator of heightened panic.

Simultaneously, options skewness entered an “extreme defensive zone,” a level previously seen only during the Luna collapse, Three Arrows Capital (3AC) turmoil, and FTX bankruptcy. This indicates investors are actively buying protective puts to hedge against further downside risk.

ETF Capital Volatility: High Trading Volume and Outflows Coexist

US spot Bitcoin ETFs also experienced historic volatility. One-day trading volume for IBIT surpassed $10 billion, setting a record since listing; that same day was also the fifth-largest net outflow day for the ETF.

Although some capital re-entered in subsequent days, overall, the past week saw net outflows exceeding 10,000 BTC. K33 noted that ETF outflows often coincide with panic in the broader market. However, historical experience suggests that such concentrated sell-offs tend to be near the end of short-term selling pressure.

$60,000 Becomes a Key Zone; Future Market Likely to Enter Consolidation

Considering extreme data points—volatility, volume, funding rates, options skewness, and ETF capital flows—K33 believes that the $60,000 zone has a “high probability” of forming a cyclical bottom.

However, the firm also expects Bitcoin is unlikely to immediately resume a strong bullish trend in the short term. Instead, it may enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks or even months, with trading ranges between $60,000 and $75,000. While a retest of support levels remains possible, there are no clear signs of a sharp drop below recent lows at this time.

K33’s assessment suggests that this rapid decline resembles an emotion-driven quick flush rather than the start of a new deep bear market. For the market, the key will be whether capital flows and trading momentum gradually stabilize in the coming weeks.