Insider at Polymarket was caught! Israeli soldiers used classified intelligence to bet on "six wins out of six," earning $150,000 and being prosecuted

Market Insider Trading Controversy Escalates Again—Following the Maduro Incident, Israeli Authorities Officially Charge a Civilian and a Reserve Military Member, Accusing Them of Profiting from Using Confidential Military Intelligence to Bet on Polymarket. The Suspicious Accounts Predicted Six Israeli Military Operations Correctly, Netting Over $150,000 in Profits. This article is sourced from Odaily’s report “Israeli Military, Catching Spies on Polymarket,” translated and edited by Dongqu.
(Background recap: Data shows prediction markets “spoiled” Maduro’s downfall 10 million dollars in advance)
(Additional context: U.S. lawmakers propose legislation to ban government employees from insider trading on prediction markets! Polymarket suspected of leaking plans to arrest Maduro)

Table of Contents

• Israel charges two suspects, accusing them of betting using military secrets
• Suspect account “Rundeep”: Six military predictions all correct
• The double-edged sword of prediction markets: a convenient “intelligence monetization” channel

The information advantage brought by insider knowledge has always been a controversial issue on prediction markets like Polymarket.

Previously, during the U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, abnormal fluctuations in the odds of related contracts on Polymarket appeared in advance (see “When War Is Settled Before News: How Prediction Markets Price Maduro’s Arrest 6 Days Early”), suggesting possible insider manipulation. If that incident could be dismissed as a “pizza index” fluctuation, this time, someone on Polymarket has definitively used insider information to bet—this has been thoroughly confirmed.

Israel charges two suspects, accusing them of betting using military secrets

On February 12, The Jerusalem Post reported that the Tel Aviv District Court formally charged a civilian and an IDF reserve soldier, accusing them of using classified military intelligence to profit from bets on Polymarket. The court further stated on Thursday that Israeli authorities consider this conduct a serious operational security risk during wartime.

According to a publicly approved statement from prosecutors, the suspects were apprehended during joint operations involving the Shin Bet, the Defense Ministry’s security agencies, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reserve soldiers are leveraging their access to confidential information to place bets on military operation schedules for profit.

Following these investigations, prosecutors announced they have evidence of the suspects’ illegal activities and have formally charged them with “serious security crimes,” bribery, and obstruction of justice. They also requested the court extend the suspects’ detention until the conclusion of the trial.

Beyond the publicly available details, further case information remains restricted by law, including the identities of the accused, specific betting targets, and the channels through which information was transmitted.

Suspect account “Rundeep”: Six military predictions all correct

Although the true identity and account of the insider remain unconfirmed, the X community has already identified a suspicious account pattern on Polymarket. The Jerusalem Post also included screenshots of the account’s profits in their report.

As shown above, the user named Rundeep joined Polymarket in June 2025 and subsequently achieved a 100% success rate across six predictions related to Israeli military actions, five of which involved low probabilities below 50%, ultimately earning over $150,000 in profit.

Interestingly, according to Odaily Planet Daily, besides these “six wins,” Rundeep had one failed prediction, which was unrelated to Israel but concerned whether the U.S. would launch an operation against Iran before Saturday, June 21, 2025—indicating that even allied intelligence isn’t infallible.

The double-edged sword of prediction markets: a convenient “intelligence monetization” channel

Because Polymarket is open and permissionless, anyone can freely place bets on the platform. This objectively provides those with an information advantage a more convenient way to monetize intelligence—driven by profit motives, individuals with asymmetric information often find it hard to resist temptation, leading to insider betting.

If such incidents occur in sports or entertainment, the impact might be manageable, but when the scenario shifts to politics or war—highly sensitive areas—the chain reactions triggered by insider betting could be truly chilling.

For example, in this case, if opponents used insider information on Polymarket to anticipate military actions, it could significantly influence subsequent developments. While many may not empathize with Israel, such events could happen in any country.

In traditional betting, public affairs like political elections, legislative outcomes, or military operations are usually subject to regulation. Whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory constraints in the future remains to be seen, likely involving a lengthy regulatory struggle.

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