Russia's return to USD settlement triggers market turbulence. Can Bitcoin brew a reversal above $60,000?

February 13 News, geopolitical tensions continue to impact global risk assets. Since the beginning of the week, financial markets have lost approximately $120 billion in market capitalization, with major stock indices retreating to pre-election levels. Amid rising risk aversion, gold initially rebounded, but on February 12, it experienced a 3.19% single-day decline, indicating that capital sentiment remains rapidly shifting.

On the same trading day, Bitcoin fell 1.2%, and the U.S. S&P 500 index dropped 1.57%, showing a synchronized weakening trend in the market. Bloomberg reported that Russia is re-expanding the use of the US dollar in cross-border settlements, a move seen as an important signal for the global currency landscape. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index, after more than a year of correction, has returned to the 2022 range, potentially increasing the likelihood of a rebound and boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.

However, a strengthening dollar often suppresses risk assets. Rising bond yields reduce the relative attractiveness of high-volatility assets like Bitcoin, making short-term upward momentum difficult to establish. Recent data also reflect cautious market sentiment, as Bitcoin ETFs saw a brief inflow followed by a $276 million outflow, indicating that institutional buying has yet to form a sustained trend.

Sentiment indicators remain weak. The CEX Premium Index has not turned positive since its peak last year, indicating insufficient North American buying confidence. However, on a structural level, large institutions continue to accumulate positions. Since 2026, major CEX and strategy institutions have collectively increased their holdings by over 42,000 Bitcoin, providing key support above $60,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a phase of sentiment and structural contest. If macro uncertainties ease and risk appetite recovers, prices may break through the current range; conversely, further dollar strength could continue to suppress short-term performance. Market focus has shifted from single technical indicators to changes in global capital flows and macro narratives.