Bitcoin Is Down Bad, But Hasn't Yet Hit Its 'Ultimate Bear Market Bottom': Analysts

In brief

• Bitcoin’s “ultimate bear market bottom” is $55,000, according to a new report from CryptoQuant.
• The firm’s market indicator also sits above its “extreme bear” phase, which has typically marked the start of bottoming process.
• Bitcoin would need to fall another 21% to reach the “ultimate bear market” mark, per analysts.

Bitcoin traders hoping that the top crypto asset has already marked its bottom for the cycle are likely to be disappointed, according to a new report from CryptoQuant.  The firm’s weekly report insists traders need patience, noting that bear market bottoms “take time to form,” while citing the true bottom for BTC is $55,000.  “Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is around $55K today,” the report reads. “This level represents the realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets.” 

The realized price—a metric that tracks the average price at which investors have purchased a specific cryptocurrency—has been touched during both of the last two bear market bottoms, according to data from the firm.  “Once the price gets to this level, it tends to gravitate around it for 4-6 months,” the firm wrote.  The firm’s report also notes that its bull-bear market cycle indicator is only in the “bear” phase, and has not entered the “extreme bear” segment that has typically marked the beginning of a bottom phase. CryptoQuant’s analysis mirrors that from others in the last few weeks. Galaxy’s head of research noted the asset’s lack of near-term catalysts and structural weakness as reasons it could head towards its 200-week moving average around $58,000.

Plus, earlier this week, Standard Chartered updated its forecast to indicate that BTC could drop to $50,000 before any sort of rebound towards $100,000.  Predictors on Myriad—a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—feel similarly, favoring Bitcoin’s drop to $55,000 before a pump to $84,000 at around 54% as of Saturday morning. Nevertheless, BTC has climbed 1.6% in the last 24 hours, recently changing hands around $69,724. At that mark, it has now dropped around 27% in the last 30 days and has fallen nearly 45% from its October all-time high of $126,080.