The DeFi
Written by: White Talk Blockchain
2025 is the year of perpetual contract DEX (Perps DEX) airdrops.
Those who used Lighter, Avantis, or Aster received huge airdrops. I still believe that engaging with perpetual contract DEXs like Extend is worthwhile.
However, I expect the biggest airdrop this year to come from prediction markets.
In this article, I will explain why, introduce the prediction market platforms I’m using, and share some strategies you can use to “farm” these airdrops.
First, the answer to “why” is simple:
Prediction market platforms are more sustainable than almost all other airdrop projects, and whales find it hard to manipulate them with large funds.
If you’re willing to spend time managing it, that’s a good thing because it also means fewer competitors. Historically, the best airdrops often come from dApps that require completing tasks and cannot provide liquidity. Additionally, prediction markets are among the few crypto products that truly find product-market fit (PMF). They are frequently covered by mainstream media; for example, Polymarket participated in last year’s $200 million in the largest funding round in crypto.
Therefore, I believe $POLY will see many buyers at TGE (Token Generation Event), and a high token valuation is key for the protocol to conduct large-dollar investments.
Here are some actual data points and calculations:
According to DeFiLlama, Polymarket’s TVL is $350 million.
Assuming it issues tokens at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $10 billion (with a venture capital valuation of $9 billion), and only a 5% token airdrop to users, that 5% could be worth $500 million.
Obviously, the airdrop might be more based on trading volume and other metrics rather than just TVL, but the fact that its airdrop value could exceed the platform’s total TVL makes farming it very attractive.
While Polymarket’s airdrop has not been officially confirmed, recent months have shown many signs that its token launch is imminent.
I am farming prediction market protocols without tokens
(I will introduce some farming strategies later)
The airdrop categories I am most confident in are Polymarket and Opinion.
I allocate 80-85% of my prediction market airdrop funds to these two platforms because I believe they are highly likely to conduct large-scale airdrops. I am also using some lesser-known platforms.
Here’s an overview of prediction market apps I’m farming besides Polymarket:
- Opinion
Supported by YZi Labs (formerly BN Labs).
Currently the third-largest prediction market platform.
They have launched a points program, and it will go live on BNB Chain in November 2025.
According to Polymarket’s forecasts, there’s a 96% chance they will launch tokens before June 30, and a 47% chance their FDV exceeds $500 million.
Most markets on Opinion are also available on Polymarket, making arbitrage between the two easy.
Annual revenue reaches $47 million.
- Predict
Also supported by YZi Labs.
Features a points program that distributes 10 million points weekly.
Predict generates yield by depositing user funds into Venus, a popular Bitcoin protocol on BNB Chain, and returns rewards weekly.
Placing limit orders (limit buy/sell) and maintaining high open interest (unsettled contracts) in prediction markets can earn more points.
- Probable
Supported by YZi Labs and PancakeSwap.
Its points program rewards users based on trading volume, referral activities, liquidity provision (LP), and holding duration.
Some prediction markets on Probable are unique and less available elsewhere.
Besides Polymarket and Kalshi (which I haven’t included because I think it’s unlikely to airdrop), these are currently the most popular apps.
Frankly, Opinion, Predict, and Probable are quite similar, all built on BNB Chain. Opinion has the first-mover advantage, so I focus mainly on that.
It’s clear that much of their trading volume isn’t driven by urgent needs but by users farming points.
Nevertheless, I believe farming is worthwhile because:
CZ and several key figures in the BNB ecosystem have been actively promoting these three well-known platforms.
The same applies to Aster DEX.
CZ heavily promoted it after TGE, and $ASTER’s FDV peaked at $15 billion. The first Aster airdrop was one of the best-performing airdrops of 2026.
Farming prediction market apps on BNB Chain could also yield similar returns.
How to farm prediction market airdrops
I will introduce three different methods.
- Direct betting based on personal judgment
If you spend a lot of time on social media (CT) and are well-versed in crypto trends, you can generate organic trading volume by researching markets like “Will there be a super-liquid airdrop in 2026?” or “What will be the FDV on USDai’s launch day?”
Honestly, I think most people should avoid this because maintaining profitability is challenging.
- Providing liquidity via limit orders
Polymarket has a rewards section showing which markets reward USDC for placing limit orders near the mid-price.
Other prediction platforms I mentioned also reward liquidity providers with points.
There are many ways to earn liquidity rewards, but I’m using this approach:
Go to the rewards section (using Polymarket as an example, but limit orders can earn points on all prediction platforms).
Sort markets by “Rewards” (click the word), and filter by categories you’re familiar with (e.g., crypto, politics).
Scroll down until you find a prediction market you believe will resolve in a certain way or is unlikely to see volatility soon.
Based on your market outlook, set limit buy orders for YES or NO at prices close to the mid-price.
For example:
There’s a market called “Will major CEXs go bankrupt in 2026?” Only if Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken go bankrupt before year-end will the outcome be “Yes.”
While outsiders can’t know their financial health exactly, I believe they’re unlikely to file for bankruptcy soon, especially considering most centralized exchanges have recent positive cash flow.
As shown in the image, this market offers a daily reward of 10 USDC for LPs.
My strategy is to place a limit buy order below the mid-price, betting on NO (No Major CEXs going bankrupt in 2026), and after the order fills, place a limit sell order above the mid-price to buy NO stocks.
To earn rewards, your limit order must be very close to the mid-price.
I’ve been doing this for several days, earning dozens of dollars. My goal isn’t to make a fortune from liquidity provision—LP rewards are small—but earning LP rewards might qualify you for Polymarket’s airdrop.
Polymarket needs sufficient liquidity, so if it airdrops, I’m confident it will reward liquidity providers.
- Prediction market arbitrage (lowest risk)
The benefit of markets on Opinion, Predict, and Probable is that almost all of these markets are also available on Polymarket.
This allows for high prediction volume and risk-free profits through arbitrage when odds differ slightly.
For example, suppose there’s a market on both Polymarket and Opinion asking “Will Trump resign before March 31?”
On Polymarket, you can bet “Yes” at 8 cents (8% probability).
You can also bet “No” at 90 cents (90% probability it won’t happen).
At expiry, both “Yes” and “No” stocks will be worth $1.
But you can buy 1 share of YES at 8 cents on Polymarket and 1 share of NO at 90 cents on Opinion, spending a total of 98 cents. Regardless of the outcome, they will both be worth $1 at expiry (about 2% profit).
I recommend only arbitraging markets expiring within 60 days.
This is the best way to generate trading volume and farm prediction markets risk-free, as long as you carefully read the rules and avoid arbitraging across different markets.
You can find arbitrage opportunities manually by searching for the same market with slightly different odds on two prediction platforms (free but time-consuming), or automatically using tools like Alert Pilot or Oxygen Delta, which leverage AI to find arbitrage opportunities.
My favorite tool is Alert Pilot. It’s arguably the best on the market, but it requires a monthly subscription, so it’s worth it mainly if you plan to do large-scale prediction market arbitrage.
Oxygen Delta is a free prediction market arbitrage tool, but in my experience, it’s less accurate and doesn’t show all opportunities.
That’s the overview of how I approach farming prediction markets.
This article is long, but I sincerely hope it helps you!
I firmly believe prediction market airdrops will bring substantial returns in 2026.
Even if Polymarket decides to airdrop only a small portion of its supply, it could still conduct one of the largest crypto airdrops ever.
