Six reasons why Bitcoin is not heading into a bear market based on long-term adoption trends from market prices

Bitcoin prices have fallen about 50% from their all-time highs, and market sentiment is gradually declining. However, Bitcoin financial services company River wrote an article titled “Bitcoin Adoption Isn’t a Bear Market,” shifting the focus from price to adoption rates and holding structures. They highlight indicators such as institutional funds, corporate asset allocation, banking product deployment, national holdings, and Lightning Network usage, all showing continuous growth. The divergence between weakening prices and underlying adoption growth often signals a market shifting from speculation to long-term value-driven.

Will institutions become Bitcoin’s largest supply? Pricing power still in HODLers’ hands

River’s research report first points out that despite significant price corrections in recent years, the holding structure is changing. Individual investors still hold about two-thirds of the circulating supply, but the share held by funds, ETFs, corporations, and government sectors continues to rise.

By 2025, institutions are expected to have accumulated about 829,000 Bitcoin, including corporate, government funds, and ETFs, indirectly holding Bitcoin through retirement accounts, brokerage accounts, and sovereign wealth funds. If this trend continues, these non-individual holders could own over half of all Bitcoin within the next decade.

Forecast chart of Bitcoin holding structure changes, showing supply gradually shifting from individuals to institutions and governments

However, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Institutions are not replacing individuals but expanding market access, with long-term holders being the marginal price setters: “Many of today’s ETF holders will be tomorrow’s self-custody users.”

Financial advisory funds have been net buying for eight consecutive months, with early-stage allocation ratios

Since the launch of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, registered investment advisors (RIAs) have begun allocating to related products. Data shows that over the past eight quarters, the amount invested by RIAs in Bitcoin ETFs has steadily increased, with no quarters of net selling.

By the end of 2025, related holdings have grown from $2.6 billion to about $12.5 billion. However, the average allocation ratio remains only around 0.008%. Compared to the approximately $146 trillion managed by RIAs, this proportion is still in early stages, indicating significant growth potential.

Bank and corporate deployment accelerates, Bitcoin becomes part of mainstream financial systems

River notes that as regulatory clarity improves, 60% of major US banks have begun exploring or launching Bitcoin-related products, including custody, trading, and integration services. While most banks are still in the announcement phase, this shows that traditional finance is gradually accepting this asset class.

On the corporate side, the number of publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin has also increased rapidly. Data shows the number of Bitcoin-holding listed companies grew from 13 in 2020 to 194 in 2026. The scale of corporate holdings has also grown significantly, especially among “Bitcoin reserve companies (DAT)” that explicitly incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheet strategies.

Number of listed companies holding Bitcoin continues to grow

This development reflects Bitcoin’s gradual integration into corporate financial management and asset allocation frameworks.

Payment and infrastructure expansion: Lightning Network transaction volume surges

Beyond investment and asset allocation, Bitcoin’s application in payment scenarios is also growing. The number of merchants accepting Bitcoin payments has increased from 3,000 in 2023 to 21,000.

Meanwhile, the Lightning Network, as a second-layer payment network, has seen estimated monthly transaction volume grow from about $12 million in 2021 to over $1.1 billion in 2025. The number of transactions has remained relatively flat over the past two years. This indicates that Bitcoin’s payment infrastructure is maturing and gaining widespread usage.

Lightning Network monthly transaction volume and number of transactions across 23 countries holding Bitcoin, with regulatory environments becoming more open

Data shows that the number of countries holding Bitcoin is also increasing, reaching 23 by 2025 through sovereign funds, central banks, or mining activities.

At the same time, since 2022, no new comprehensive bans have been implemented, and most countries are moving toward ETF approval, tax reforms, or legalization. This suggests that the global regulatory environment is becoming more open and institutionalized compared to the past.

(Bhutan sold over $860 million worth of Bitcoin in half a year; ETF investors remain steadfast)

Signs of maturity: volatility declines, inflows double

The report also notes that Bitcoin’s volatility has been trending downward over the long term, approaching the levels of gold and the S&P 500. For more conservative investors, the entry barrier may lower as volatility decreases.

Meanwhile, capital inflows have grown with each cycle. The total inflow since 2022 exceeds that of previous bull markets, indicating expansion in market size and participant structure.

Capital inflow per Bitcoin cycle is growing exponentially

Price and adoption decoupling? Market is transforming

In conclusion, River emphasizes that Bitcoin’s short-term price movements are still influenced by macroeconomics, liquidity, and market sentiment. However, from multiple indicators—holding structures, ETF allocations, corporate financial strategies, banking product deployment, payment infrastructure, and national participation—there are no clear signs of decline in adoption.

As Bitcoin’s institutionalization and mainstream integration continue, the market is shifting from “speculation-driven” to “allocation-driven.” When investors focus less on short-term prices and more on long-term adoption trends, a different development trajectory from traditional bull and bear markets may emerge.

This article, “Market Price Returns to Long-Term Adoption Trends: Six Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Not Entering a Bear Market,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.