Santi expects Solana to have a wealth effect similar to the Ethereum ICO movement.
Compiled by: Revelo Intel
Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow
In this episode of Empire aired on January 2, 2024, Yano and Santi discussed cryptocurrency market predictions for 2024, the rise of Solana, the evolution of Ethereum, the NFT wealth wave, the future of DeFi, and more.
Background introduction
- Yano (Moderator) - Founder of Blockworks
*Santi (Host) - Host of Empire Podcast
- Blockworks - A cryptocurrency news, information and analysis platform
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2024: Solana, Ethereum’s Challenge, and the NFT Wealth Wave
Santi forecasts 2024 as a year of rising risks, with interest rates falling and liquidity increasing, but expects a shorter cycle and expresses uncertainty about the second half of 2025. He said that in 2024, funds will flow from money market accounts to markets, especially Solana and other chains, although the consumer-level market remains cautious.
Yano questioned whether Santi’s predictions only applied to cryptocurrencies or the broader market, sparking discussions about election years, interest rates and market predictions.
Solana’s market capitalization will approach Ethereum, Santi said, detailing his belief in Solana’s potential value and discussing the possibility of Solana flipping Ethereum before the end of 2024. He highlighted Solana’s market share growth relative to Ethereum’s market share.
Santi expects Solana to have a wealth effect similar to the Ethereum ICO movement, predicting that as people invest in JPEG due to the wealth effect, NFT bottom prices will plummet and rise significantly.
Yano agreed with Santi’s prediction and added his own opinion, foreseeing a huge wave of airdrops in the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems, with capital flowing into these two ecosystems, especially Solana.
Santi mentioned that Jupiter will have multiple rounds of airdrops, thereby increasing the activity and incentive mechanism of the ecosystem.
Yano observed that the Solana NFT gained new wealth following the $JTO airdrop, suggesting that new capital resulted in investment in the NFT. He predicts that 2024 will be an important year for JPEG.
Santi noticed that when wealth or prices surge, retail chatter tends to focus on NFT collectibles.
Yano predicts that there will be a huge influx of capital into NFTs in 2024, driven by successful cryptocurrency natives, especially after the wave of airdrops in the first and second quarters of 2024.
Santi predicts that one or two Solana series may have a base price of $100,000 each. Yano agreed, specifically mentioning the potential of the Mad Lads series.
Santi listed Mad Lads and Solana Monkey Business as potentially high-value NFTs and discussed the possible impact of airdrops.
Yano believes that non-Solana NFTs like Pudgy will also thrive, but he is bearish on projects like Yuga and Bored apes that have raised large amounts of capital.
Santi predicts that penguins may outperform boring apes in the NFT market, driven by a clear vision and connection to the real world.
Santi predicts that in the Solana ecosystem, at least ten unicorn companies will emerge in different fields such as DeFi, NFT, gaming and artificial intelligence.
Santi is excited about launching Firedancer on Solana, looking forward to it addressing criticisms and improving chain efficiency and resiliency. Yano detailed what Firedancer means to Solana in an article.
Santi predicts a resurgence of activity in Bitcoin, with the launch of Bitcoin L2 leading to increased activity in DeFi and other areas.
Yano mentioned that Ordinals had not been discussed and suggested that more Bitcoin-related content could be launched in 2024. Santi agreed, noting the potential impact on Bitcoin’s security budget.
Yano and Santi’s Crypto Predictions: ETFs, Staking, AI Mania, & DeFi Shifts
Yano asked Santi about his predictions for Bitcoin ETFs, and Santi said they might launch in the first quarter of 2024, but was unsure of their impact. Yano expects disappointment, but acknowledges the ability of traditional financial institutions to sell such products.
Yano asks Santi about the pledge since the last conversation. Santi said he is considering the issue and predicts that a major vulnerability may arise, calling into question the security and vulnerability posed by staking.
Yano said that staking will become the hottest trend in crypto and compared it to DeFi summer, but expects tragic consequences in the coming year, including major staking-related slashing events and liquidations.
Santi predicts that as more and more projects are launched and arouse great interest, artificial intelligence coins will reach the peak of enthusiasm and the market value will exceed 100 billion.
Yano shared the story of his father wanting to buy Akash Network to gain investment in artificial intelligence because he believed Nvidia was overvalued. Yano believes his father’s actions are indicative of a trend for 2024.
Santi expressed skepticism about institutional participation in cryptocurrency investments, arguing that they are not significantly different from retail investors.
Yano agreed with Santi, adding that institutions tend to follow the retail model in the cryptocurrency market. He also mentioned his lack of AI predictions.
Yano predicts that DeFi will re-emerge, led by DeFi OGs, helping cryptocurrencies become mainstream. He cited various projects and leaders in the field.
Santi disagreed with Yano’s predictions about DeFi, expressing greater interest in Solana’s potential to capture DeFi activity.
For security reasons, Santi predicts that Move-based languages will receive increasing attention, affecting L1 chains and EVM connections.
Yano echoed Santi’s sentiments, citing co-investment in a project focused on safety.
Santi predicted the success of the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) and discussed Ethereum’s potential to surpass the EVM.
Yano backed Santi’s predictions and discussed the challenges of developing tools beyond EVM.
Santi further predicted developer activity and connectivity improvements for Ethereum, as well as IBC and Cosmos gaining recognition.
Santi spoke about the relevance of Cosmos in the cross-chain world and its potential to solve user experience challenges, emphasizing the importance of chain abstraction.
Yano believes that Cosmos has led the industry in innovation for many years, noting that other companies have followed Cosmos’ lead while solving ecosystem awareness problems.
Santi acknowledged that there is a perception issue and highlighted the major bids that certain Cosmos ecosystem tokens have attracted. He discussed the $ATOM token and other Cosmos components, agreeing that a lot of research and future learning is needed.
Yano predicted the future of Layer 2 technologies, noting that they won’t solve interoperability issues until 2024 and saying that they may start offering native yields due to Blast’s success.
Santi expects the narrative in the Ethereum community to shift from “supersonic currency” to another narrative, suggesting focusing on Ethereum’s role as the main chain and discussing the impact of increased activity on other chains.
Yano agreed, citing an article about Ethereum not being an “ultrasonic currency,” while Santi recommended some sources of content to keep up with the fast-paced industry changes.
Banking and Cryptocurrency Synergies: The Evolution of Coinbase and Broader Market Trends
Santi said Coinbase is transforming into a full-fledged bank and argued for its potential as a top 10 financial institution in the world, predicting a valuation of more than $100 billion.
He described Coinbase’s multi-faceted development, focusing on the ETF narrative, user onboarding and funding non-speculative use cases, and compared its development journey to the launch of the iPhone.
Yano agreed with Santi’s prediction and shared insights from big brands that Coinbase’s Base is a significant opportunity for regulated, enterprise-level blockchain applications.
Yano expressed interest in Coinbase expanding into personal and B2B banking, potentially acquiring companies like Mercury.
Both spoke about their increasing use of the $USDC blockchain for payments and transactions in both personal and business transactions.
Yano predicts a big year for prediction markets, driven by skepticism about traditional polls, new user-generated market platforms and the general election.
Santi discussed the challenges facing prediction markets, including liquidity and user experience, and speculated on potential high-volume markets.
Yano believes that the valuation gap between companies with tokens and those without tokens is getting wider, predicting a round of decline for later-stage startups and a boom for token-based projects. Finally, they discuss the importance of gaming forecasts and broader market catalysts and risks.
Yano believes there will be a new wave of crypto-native media companies, pointing to the evolution of new platforms from CoinDesk and Cointelegraph to Blockworks and Decrypt. He hopes these companies will integrate on-chain media.
Santi agreed with Yano, but noted that it takes more than a year to build a media company.
Some projects developed in the Bear market will be highlighted, Yano said.
Santi sees gaming and ETF approval as major catalysts for cryptocurrencies, highlighting gaming’s potential in terms of retail participation and the importance of liquidity inflows from central bank actions.
Yano predicted that social finance and music NFTs could be important catalysts, and raised the possibility of integration with platforms such as Instagram.
Santi emphasized the continued relevance of meme coins and the importance of marketing and brand building to the technology.
Yano predicts that the United States will re-emerge in the cryptocurrency space, alternating with Asia as the center of cryptocurrency activity.
Santi said the industry will always face challenges and battle barriers, suggesting they are timeless elements.
Tribalism in the market persists and may worsen in the coming bull market, Yano said.
Santi expressed his changing loyalties between Ethereum and Solana, citing his changing views and affiliations in the cryptocurrency space.
Yano asked how to make specific price predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, as well as other related cryptocurrencies.
Santi recommends starting the discussion of price predictions by reviewing the previous all-time highs of major cryptocurrencies.
Santi predicts that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana will break through all-time highs in 2024.
Yano shared his predictions, which while slightly different in numbers, maintain a similar outlook on the market’s trajectory, while other cryptocurrencies such as Avalanche ($AVAX) and Layer 2 solutions, Yano believes may also be affected by the market of great attention and competition.
Santi analyzes the potential market capitalization impact of their forecasts, reflecting on the liquidity and beta of young ecosystems and how they may disproportionately benefit from new capital inflows.
Santi and Yano reflected on the possibility of ETF success diverging from the performance of the broader cryptocurrency market, focusing on a potential future scenario in which Bitcoin becomes the dominant “doomsday trade.”
