UBS Signals Silver's Big Potential as Gold Takes Defensive Role

UBS forecasts silver will outperform as it gains from economic growth and industrial demand, positioning it as a dual hedge and growth asset for investors.

Why UBS Sees Silver Poised for a Breakout Amid Economic Shifts

Global investment bank UBS published a note on Monday, outlining the distinct roles of gold and silver in hedging economic risk while highlighting silver’s additional growth potential.

UBS investment writer Julian Wee explained that gold has surged 35% year-to-date, making it a popular choice for investors seeking a defensive position against slower economic growth and inflation risks amid global rate cuts. According to Wee, gold’s rising demand — driven by broadening interest from Asian central banks and positive inflows from North American exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — will likely keep its appeal strong, with the price projected to reach $2,900 per ounce by September 2025. Despite gold’s strong appeal as a safe haven, Wee suggests investors diversify by considering silver, emphasizing:

Gold is not the only precious metal whose price demonstrates an inverse relationship to risk aversion.

Silver, Wee noted, offers an additional advantage by capitalizing on resilient U.S. GDP growth and robust industrial demand. “Investors might do well to consider an addition to portfolios that retains a good amount of defensiveness, while also incrementally adding to the ability of these portfolios to benefit from stronger economic growth: silver,” Wee explained.

He foresees silver prices rising to between $36 and $38 per ounce in 2025, stating:

We thus expect prices to reach USD 36-38/oz in 2025, and advise investors to stay long the metal or use it for yield pickup opportunities.

Historically, silver prices have correlated with gold, but silver’s strong industrial applications, especially in tech, electric vehicles, LEDs, and medical devices, offer added appeal. Additionally, with the likelihood of a “no landing” scenario — continued GDP growth without a downturn — silver is well-positioned to benefit from both defensive and growth-driven demand. As silver prices consolidate near recent highs, Wee projects that the gold-silver price ratio will decline from 84 to the mid-70s over the next year, implying an outperformance for silver. This shift, he suggests, makes silver a valuable asset for investors looking to balance risk and growth.