ETH 15-minute price increase of 1.04%: institutional spot buy orders and on-chain activity in sync are driving the move higher

Between 2026-03-31 01:15 and 2026-03-31 01:30 (UTC), ETH recorded a +1.04% return within 15 minutes. The price range was 2039.77 to 2062.77 USDT, with a swing of 1.13%. During this period, market volatility intensified, trading activity surged, and short-term attention increased.

The primary drivers behind this unusual move are ongoing inflows of institutional capital into spot ETFs, with spot market buy pressure for Ethereum leading. On-chain large transfers increased, whale addresses added to their holdings in a short time. Funds moved from multiple major exchanges to on-chain addresses and cold wallets, pushing up short-term prices. In addition, improving MACRO conditions boosted risk appetite. Macro variables such as falling U.S. Treasury yields, a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts combined to increase the appeal of high-beta assets, giving ETH structural funding support.

As for secondary factors, the number of active on-chain addresses surged over the past hour to 53,834. Influx of ecosystem users drove transfer volume, with daily transfers exceeding 2.8 million. The ecosystem’s underlying fundamentals were strong, providing price support from the bottom up. Layer-2 TVL grew quarter-over-quarter by 25% to $55 billion. Mainstream stablecoin circulation and large transfers were frequent, further ensuring abundant on-chain liquidity. Meanwhile, within the event window, large on-chain inflows of assets such as USDe and MOODENG, along with some funds flowing to high-frequency trading robots, strengthened spot buy pressure. Local liquidity tightness amplified price volatility, and stronger spot–derivatives market linkage enhanced upward momentum.

Short-term risks to note: the persistence of spot ETF inflows is affected by macro policies and the regulatory environment. On-chain MEV bot trading may amplify volatility under extreme market conditions. A decline in exchange ETH balances is supportive for price, but if on-chain liquidity tightens further, it may trigger sharp swings. It is recommended to closely monitor macro indicators such as ETF net subscription data, net on-chain fund flows, and the U.S. Dollar Index and interest rate trends, continue tracking large on-chain behaviors and changes in key resistance levels, and promptly grasp subsequent market developments.