ETH drops 1.56% in 15 minutes: Whales' on-chain fund flows and options expiration jointly trigger selling pressure

From 09:30 to 09:45 UTC on March 26, 2026, ETH price dropped by -1.56% within 15 minutes, with a price range of $2,075.21 to $2,116.99 USDT and a volatility of 1.97%. The market experienced clear fluctuations, on-chain trading volume surged, and market attention quickly intensified. Short-term capital flowed rapidly, and derivatives market volatility increased, indicating a trend reversal characteristic of mainstream cryptocurrencies under multiple structural pressures.

The main driver of this movement was large whales collateralizing ETH via DeFi protocols to release liquidity, then transferring large sums to a major exchange, which led to simultaneous increases in spot and futures trading volume. Selling pressure significantly intensified, compounded by large-scale expiry of ETH options on platforms like Deribit. Data shows that on March 26, ETH options expiring accounted for over 50% of total open interest, triggering short-term mass selling by institutions and large holders through options rollovers and closures, which worsened spot market pressure and caused prices to fall back into the Max Pain zone, contributing to the core downward movement.

Additionally, perpetual contract funding rates fluctuated sharply during this window, with short positions increasing further, pushing down prices in the short term. Some on-chain whales faced liquidation risks due to declining Aave health factors, leading to passive sell-offs and continued selling pressure. On a macro level, expectations of Fed rate cuts were lowered, the US dollar index hit a new high in March, geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices higher, and the simultaneous decline of major US stock indices triggered global market resonance. Capital shifted to safe havens like the US dollar and gold, increasing liquidity pressure on risk assets like ETH, further amplifying short-term volatility.

Market risk is now significantly elevated. Key areas to monitor include remaining open interest changes on Deribit and other platforms, real-time on-chain fund flows of whales, the health factor trends of DeFi protocols like Aave, and macro variables such as Fed interest rate policies and geopolitical risk events, which continue to impact risk assets. Short-term traders should remain alert to further selling pressure and chain reactions of liquidations, continuously watch relevant market news and on-chain real-time data.