Ethereum or plummet to $1,200? Analysts warn that a bull market trap has taken shape.

Gate News update: Crypto analyst Leshka.eth recently noted that the Ethereum price is repeating a historical fractal pattern. If a key support level breaks, the market could see a pullback of up to 40% in the short term, with targets pointing to the $1,200 range.

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum’s current trend looks highly similar to two failed rebound attempts in October 2025 and January 2026. Back then, the price each broke above the upper band of the Super Trend line, only to quickly fall back. It subsequently recorded declines of about 45% and 48%, respectively. This pattern is now appearing again near the $1,990 level. Once it breaks below this support zone, downside room could be further opened. At the same time, the bearish flag pattern on the daily chart further reinforces this outlook.

The macro environment also adds pressure on price. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, along with uncertainty stemming from U.S.–Iran conflict, have weakened market risk appetite. This is compounded by inflation pressure and changing rate expectations, causing capital to become more cautious. Data shows that Ethereum’s price has fallen more than 17% from its recent highs. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have recorded roughly a $300 million net outflow, and demand indicators have slipped to a 16-month low.

On-chain data further confirms a lack of market confidence. According to Glassnode statistics, the number of whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH has stalled since topping out at the end of 2025, with no clear signs of aggressive accumulation. Addresses of mid-sized and smaller whales also have not resumed sustained buying, suggesting that the capital structure remains fragmented.

However, there are still some supportive factors. The amount of Ethereum staked continues to grow, and the amount of coins held on exchanges has fallen to a near-decade low, indicating that long-term supply pressure is easing.

At the current stage, $1,990 has become the key watershed level. If it breaks down, the market may enter a deeper adjustment range; if it holds, there is still a chance of maintaining a range-bound structure. Short-term price action will depend on changes in the macro environment and whether capital returns.