Gate News message, April 22 — On Polymarket’s prediction market event “Trump will continue blockading the Strait of Hormuz before April 30,” a high-win-rate account (@Pajamapants) with an 81% success rate purchased $40,000 worth of shares betting that Trump will not stop the blockade, with an average entry price of 68.5 cents.
The market resolves to “yes” only if President Trump, the U.S. government, or U.S. military publicly and formally announces the end of the blockade by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, the market resolves to “no.” The statement must explicitly indicate that the U.S. has lifted, ended, or will lift or end the blockade, or use equivalent clear language confirming the blockade has stopped or will stop by the deadline. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Trump, including posts on his Truth Social account or videos on social media, are acceptable for a “yes” resolution.
The market resolution depends solely on whether a qualifying announcement is made by the deadline; the actual effectiveness of the blockade or restoration of maritime traffic will not be considered without an explicit announcement.
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