Hong Kong suspends the legalization of basketball betting and studies the impact and compliance issues of prediction markets

Hong Kong has suspended the legalization of basketball betting this week, while also planning to launch a study to assess the impact of prediction markets in Hong Kong and their level of adoption. Macie Mak, Commissioner for Home and Youth Affairs in Hong Kong, said that the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has grown from less than $100 million two years ago to more than $13 billion last year, with about 40% related to sports.

Makie Mak’s Statement: Research Plan and Public Education Measures

According to Macie Mak’s statement, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets increased from less than $100 million to more than $13 billion over two years, with about 40% of trades related to sports. Makie Mak said the government will conduct research to understand the impact of prediction markets in Hong Kong and their prevalence, and plans to strengthen public education to improve residents’ awareness of the harms of gambling, while discouraging them from participating in illegal activities.

Hong Kong government’s legal stance: Sports betting classified as illegal, basketball plan suspended

According to Hong Kong government’s official position, sports betting in prediction markets has been clearly classified as illegal gambling. In an announcement dated Monday, April 14, 2026, the Hong Kong government officially stated that the basketball betting legalization plan originally scheduled to be launched in September 2026 has been suspended. The authorities noted that the rapid rise of prediction markets will attract public attention to such platforms, thereby indirectly fueling illegal markets and posing significant risks.

Polymarket case and related betting activities

Based on reports investigating the New York Polymarket platform, Polymarket’s valuation is about $14.21 billion. Its popular live active betting includes: whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement by a specific date (bet amount of $4 million), and real-time betting contracts on Bitcoin’s five-minute price fluctuations. The cases above are one of the background references for Hong Kong authorities’ assessment of the impact of prediction markets.

Frequently asked questions

What growth trend is shown by the monthly trading amount figures for prediction markets quoted by Macie Mak?

According to statements by Macie Mak, Commissioner for Home and Youth Affairs of Hong Kong, the monthly trading amount of prediction markets has increased from less than $100 million two years ago to more than $13 billion last year, with about 40% of trades related to sports; the Hong Kong government plans to launch further research to assess its local impact.

What is Hong Kong government’s legal position on sports betting in prediction markets?

According to Hong Kong government’s official position, sports betting in prediction markets has been clearly classified as illegal gambling; the government also announced measures to strengthen public education and raise residents’ awareness of the harms of gambling.

Why has the basketball betting legalization plan in Hong Kong been suspended?

According to Hong Kong government’s April 14, 2026 announcement, the basketball betting legalization plan (originally scheduled to be launched in September 2026) has officially been suspended. The authorities said that the rapid rise of prediction markets may indirectly promote illegal betting markets, posing significant risks.