Is Bitcoin Approaching a Key “Buy Zone”? On-Chain Data Reveals That the Real BTC Bottom Signal Still Has Not Appeared

Gate News reports that the current Bitcoin price range is gradually approaching the market’s “buy zone” of interest, but on-chain data indicates that the true bottom signal has not yet fully formed. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s actual price is approximately $54,286, while the spot price is about $68,774, resulting in a premium of roughly 21%, which shows that overall holders are still in profit.

From a historical cycle perspective, when Bitcoin’s price drops below the actual price, it signifies that the market as a whole has entered a loss zone, which is generally regarded as a long-term accumulation phase. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin’s price remained below the actual price for several months and eventually bottomed out around $15,500. Since the current price is still above the cost range, it indicates that the market has not yet experienced a sell-off of similar magnitude.

However, a noteworthy change is that the premium is rapidly narrowing. At the end of 2024, when Bitcoin’s price exceeded $119,000, the premium once reached 120%; by early 2026, this figure had compressed to 21%, reflecting that the market bubble has been significantly absorbed. This trend suggests that the price is gradually returning to its “true value.”

CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen points out that Bitcoin has entered an initial accumulation phase, but there is still a gap from the typical bottom conditions. Meanwhile, the CEX Premium Index has turned negative, indicating that demand from U.S. institutions has temporarily weakened, adding some short-term pressure.

Nevertheless, the market has not fully shifted to pessimism. Recently, the range between $65,000 and $70,000 has continued to find support, and ETF fund inflows remain active, showing that some capital is positioning in advance. The divergence between on-chain signals and fund behavior reflects that the current market is in a critical tug-of-war stage.

If Bitcoin further declines to around $54,000, it may come even closer to the traditional “value buy zone.” Before that, the market might still need to experience more volatility and emotional releases to complete a genuine cyclical bottoming process. (CoinDesk)