Michael Saylor: Bitcoin may have already hit bottom, but quantum risks have been exaggerated

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said at a recent event hosted by Mizuho Bank that Bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000 in early February this year, when the traders who were forced to sell had been cleared out of the market. He also directly dismissed the quantum computing threat that has been hotly discussed in the crypto market recently, saying the associated risks have been greatly exaggerated.

Bitcoin Bottoming Logic: The Bottom Is Determined by Seller Exhaustion, Not Valuation

At the event, Saylor reiterated his framework for bottoming: the formation of a Bitcoin bottom is not determined by traditional valuation models, but by a structural phenomenon driven by “seller exhaustion.” Once all participants who are forced to sell—including traders whose leveraged positions are forcibly liquidated—have already exited, the selling pressure naturally dries up, and the bottom forms accordingly.

Based on this logic, Saylor believes the $60,000 low in early February this year fits this condition. He further noted that current selling pressure in the market is already fairly limited: inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are continuously absorbing the supply of newly mined Bitcoin each day; at the same time, more and more companies are allocating their financial assets to Bitcoin, creating structural, ongoing demand.

The Next Bull-Cycle Catalyst: The Capital-Market Engine Effect of Digital Credit and STRC Preferred Shares

When asked about the core catalyst for the next bull run, Saylor pointed to the formation of bank credit and a digital credit system built on Bitcoin.

Saylor’s Core Argument for “Bitcoin Credit-ification”

The current problem: Bitcoin is currently a non-yielding asset, so investors can only profit from price appreciation, and its application scenarios are relatively limited

The direction of the transition: Once bank credit and digital credit form on top of Bitcoin, BTC evolves from a “buy-and-hold asset” into a “capital markets engine” that supports broader lending and credit activities

The existing example: Strategy’s STRC preferred shares are a real-world example of digital credit. Even with an 11.5% yield—though high—it is still far below Saylor’s expectations for Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation, creating a sustainable arbitrage opportunity

Latest data (April 9): The funds raised by STRC preferred shares that day can buy more than 2,500 BTC, equivalent to 5 times the total daily supply produced by global Bitcoin miners, showing strong demand-side absorption capacity

Quantum Computing Threat: Saylor’s Direct Rebuttal

Regarding the Bitcoin security concerns raised after tech giants such as Cloudflare and Google set a quantum encryption migration deadline after 2029, Saylor took a clear rebuttal position.

He believes the quantum computing threat is being severely exaggerated, mainly because: the quantum threat is currently still at the theoretical level, and it may take decades before it becomes an actually executable attack scenario; even if, at some future point, quantum computing matures enough to threaten the cryptographic systems protecting Bitcoin, the technical community would have sufficient time to develop and deploy post-quantum cryptographic solutions; and there are no fundamental barriers to technical feasibility.

Saylor’s stance sharply contrasts with the emergency post-2029 migration deadlines set by Cloudflare and Google, which are driven by real-world concerns about a breakthrough accelerated by quantum hardware.

Common Questions

Why does Michael Saylor believe Bitcoin bottomed in February?

Saylor’s bottoming view is based on the “seller exhaustion” framework: once all market participants who are forced to sell have already exited, selling pressure naturally dries up, and a bottom forms right afterward. He believes the $60,000 low in early February meets this condition, and that with ETF inflows continuing and steady corporate allocation demand, overall selling pressure is already quite limited.

What is Bitcoin’s next bull-cycle catalyst?

Saylor believes the core catalyst is the formation of a bank credit and digital credit system built on Bitcoin. Strategy’s STRC preferred shares are an early example of this direction—attracting capital through high-yield products and using part of the funds to buy BTC—aiming to turn Bitcoin from a non-yielding asset into a capital markets engine that can support credit activities.

How does Michael Saylor view the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin?

Saylor believes the quantum threat is exaggerated, pointing out that it is still at the theoretical stage, that it could take decades to become real, and that post-quantum cryptography can serve as a solution at that time. This position is clearly different from the cautious attitude recently shown by Cloudflare and Google when they set post-2029 quantum migration deadlines, creating the main divergence of opinions in the market.