Multiple European financial institutions: International oil prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-U.S.-Iran conflict levels in the near term

Gate News update: On April 9, multiple European financial institutions yesterday (April 8) released reports forecasting that international oil prices are unlikely to fall back to levels seen before the U.S.-Iran conflict in the near term. The market needs to keep an eye on the status of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the recovery of infrastructure in the Middle East.

ING (ING Group) said that the news that the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire has, to a certain extent, eased market concerns that long-term oil supply could be disrupted. International oil prices have fallen to below $100 per barrel. Future oil price trends will depend on whether the negotiations can reach a durable agreement and whether shipping levels through the strait can return to normal. It is expected that the market will continue to experience persistent volatility during the negotiation period.

UBS Group said it is still unclear when and to what extent shipping through the strait will recover, and that some oil tankers need time to re-plan their routes. Once passage through the strait is impeded again, energy prices could rebound quickly. In addition, even in optimistic conditions, repairing energy infrastructure and restoring production will take weeks or even months, so energy prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels in the short term.