
According to Reuters on April 21, SpaceX’s IPO prospectus disclosed highly unusual executive compensation: CEO and President Gwynne Shotwell’s total compensation amounted to $85.8 million, placing her among the highest-paid executives in the United States; while CEO Elon Musk, who holds a large amount of SpaceX shares, earns only $54,080 in annual salary.
There are several unusual aspects to this IPO by SpaceX. The company plans to sell about $75 billion worth of stock, representing less than 5% of the company’s total market value, with a much lower float ratio than typical IPOs. 30% of the shares will be allocated to retail investors, which is rare among companies of a similar size and among large tech firms that go public. In addition, the index provider is adjusting inclusion rules, allowing passive funds to add SpaceX stock to their portfolios faster than usual, further boosting market demand.
Using a Reuters analysts’ framework, SpaceX can be broken into four parts to assess valuation:
Rocket business: Last year it achieved a record 165 launches, but revenue is estimated at only about $4 billion, and historically it has barely maintained break-even; even granting a 5x revenue valuation would yield only about $20 billion.
Starlink: Estimated to reach $20 billion in revenue in 2026, growing more than 50% from 2025. If valued at 32 times historical revenue, that corresponds to about $640 billion, making it the most quantifiable component of the current valuation.
xAI (including the X community network): In the first nine months of last year it recorded losses of about $8 billion; if its $250 billion valuation at the time of combining with SpaceX is carried forward.
Together, these three total about $910 billion, still less than half of the $1.75 trillion valuation.
The remaining valuation gap needs to be filled with Musk’s vision—space data centers (planned for up to 1 million satellites), asteroid mining, and space tourism, ultimately leading to Mars colonization. These concepts currently face real-world bottlenecks: Google estimates that only by bringing launch costs down to below $200 per kilogram would space-based energy become economically viable, while SpaceX’s cost is currently about $1,500 per kilogram.
Musk’s Tesla example, however, provides a precedent for the public market paying for futuristic ambitions—Tesla’s $1.3 trillion market cap was driven mainly by expectations for humanoid robots and autonomous driving rather than existing sales. SpaceX’s IPO logic may also follow a similar narrative framework.
From a traditional valuation perspective, it’s difficult to fully justify—an IPO valuation equal to roughly 100 times historical revenue, and the company is still in a loss-making position. Analysts believe that existing businesses (Starlink about $640 billion, xAI about $250 billion, rockets about $20 billion) total only about $910 billion, which can explain a little more than half of the valuation; the other half relies on market pricing of Musk’s future concepts.
Musk’s main financial upside is reflected through holding a large amount of SpaceX shares, with his wealth directly tied to the company’s market value. The symbolic pay arrangement partly stems from tax considerations (salary income is taxed at a higher rate than capital gains), and it also sends a signal emphasizing “prioritizing the company’s long-term interests.”
So far, yes. Starlink is the only business line that has generated quantifiable, fast-growing revenue (forecast $20 billion in 2026), and it has not yet faced true competition (Amazon’s LEO services only start this summer). Analysts estimate that Starlink could contribute about $640 billion to SpaceX’s valuation, which is the largest component of the valuation based on current certainty.
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