Polymarket bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and makes a staggering 3,500% profit—are insider trading allegations heating up?

Gate News message: As tensions between the United States and Iran ease, prices across multiple asset classes have risen in tandem. However, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, some traders have earned astonishing returns by making highly accurate bets on the outcome of a ceasefire, sparking widespread discussion in the market about insider trading. On-chain data analysis shows that the user BlueHorseshoe86 profited about $194k from related events, with its historical cumulative gains reaching $440k, all from predictions involving major political events.

Another trader was even more aggressive, putting $13,200 into a single bet and ultimately earning more than $470k in returns, for a return on investment of nearly 3,500%. In addition, a wallet address labeled as “suspicious” made highly precise predictions at the key time points of Iran’s military action and the ceasefire, with cumulative profits exceeding $400k. The timing and outcome matches for these trading behaviors are extremely high, leading market observers to question whether the trader had access to undisclosed information.

Although there is currently no definitive evidence proving insider trading, the frequent appearance of similar cases has posed challenges to the fairness of prediction markets. Industry insiders say that decentralized prediction platforms essentially rely on information transparency and market competition; once information asymmetry occurs, it may weaken the effectiveness of their pricing mechanisms.

Regulators are also starting to pay attention to this trend. U.S. lawmakers are pushing to expand the regulatory framework, focusing on cracking down on behavior that places bets using policy information. Meanwhile, Polymarket has updated its platform rules to clearly prohibit trading based on confidential information or participating in markets whose outcomes can be affected by the participant themselves, in order to strengthen market integrity.

Against the backdrop of heightened macro uncertainty and frequent geopolitical events, activity on prediction markets has increased significantly. But how to strike a balance between openness and compliance has become a key issue the industry urgently needs to resolve.