Gate News message, April 22 — The probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal on Polymarket before April 30 has dropped sharply to 18%, down 17% over the past 24 hours, according to monitoring by Odaily Seer. Total trading volume on this prediction market contract has exceeded $35 million.
The contract resolves to “yes” if Iran and the US reach a permanent peace agreement by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on April 30. A qualifying agreement must explicitly state that military hostilities between the two nations have ended or will permanently cease. Temporary ceasefire extensions, such as the two-week truce announced on April 7, 2026, do not qualify. The market references official statements from US and Iranian governments as primary sources, supplemented by credible reporting.
Tensions have escalated sharply as the ceasefire approaches expiration. Iran initially refused to attend talks in Islamabad, accusing the US of obstructing substantive negotiations. President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at Pakistan’s request but threatened to resume bombing Iran after the deadline expires, maintaining a naval blockade and expanding sanctions. Vice President Vance canceled his planned trip to Pakistan. Iran has since blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and publicly displayed ballistic missiles, declaring readiness for renewed conflict.
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