Solana breaks below key moving averages! A bearish flag pattern emerges, and SOL may drop to the $40 range.

Gate News update: After failing to break through the $93 resistance level, Solana (SOL) has clearly weakened, with the price pulling back to around $87, registering a single-day drop of 5.7%. The current market is focusing on support within the $82 to $91 range, which is viewed as a key inflection point for short-term price action.

Analyst BitGuru noted that after SOL repeatedly tested $93 without success, it retreated back to a historical support band. If buyers step in here, the price may still have a chance to attempt a rebound; but once the market breaks below this area, it could enter a new round of downside movement. On-chain data shows that this range previously attracted more than 100 million SOL in trading, meaning the demand base is relatively concentrated.

From a technical structure perspective, SOL is currently trading below the key moving averages. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are at $88.63 and $86.09, respectively, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are far above the current price, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains weak. Momentum indicators also release cautious signals: the RSI is in a neutral-to-weak zone, and the MACD is below the signal line, leaving the market without a clear direction.

What’s even more concerning is that a bearish flag structure is forming on the daily timeframe. This pattern typically appears during the consolidation phase after a rapid selloff; once it breaks downward, it may extend the prior trend. If this structure holds, over the coming weeks SOL faces a risk of testing the $40 to $45 range.

However, the fundamentals have not weakened in parallel. Solana network activity remains high. During the statistical period, it processed more than 825 million transactions, accounting for about 44% of the market’s transaction share, suggesting that on-chain usage demand is still strong.

In the short term, SOL’s trend will depend on how well the support zone holds. If the key range is lost, levels such as $53 and $35 may become the focus for the next phase.