Ukraine's raid disrupts the oil market, Trump's plan is thwarted, and Bitcoin faces the risk of falling below $65,000.

Gate News reports that geopolitical conflicts are reshaping the global financial market landscape. Recently, uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict have driven up energy prices, while the escalation of the situation in Ukraine has further disrupted U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy to stabilize the oil market and has put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

In the past month, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept the market on high alert, as potential disruptions to this key oil transport route have pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation expectations. In this context, the U.S. has adjusted restrictions on Russian oil to alleviate supply shocks. However, this week Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, directly weakening its export capacity and worsening the situation.

Analysts point out that these strikes have damaged about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, with the issue not only being a reduction in supply but also a severe disruption to logistics chains. Coupled with the turmoil in the Middle East, uncertainty in the global energy market has significantly increased, and oil prices may remain elevated. Rising energy costs typically translate to inflationary pressures, thereby impacting the monetary policy paths of various countries.

As a result, market expectations for short-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have notably increased. Options trading data indicate that some traders are betting on a higher likelihood of policy tightening in the coming weeks. In an environment of tightening liquidity, Bitcoin and other crypto assets are facing valuation pressures.

In terms of price performance, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $68,500, with short-term trends under pressure. If macro risks continue to escalate, the market is broadly focused on support and volatility in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. If key support levels are breached, it could trigger further declines.

Against the backdrop of ongoing global macro disturbances, Bitcoin’s trajectory is gradually shifting from being driven by a single market to a more complex interplay of multiple factors, with the interconnected impacts of energy, interest rates, and geopolitics deepening.