Why Is Bitcoin Down Today? The U.S. Extends the Iran War, ETF Outflows Accelerate as Miners Surrender

Bitcoin fell below $67,000, with a weekly decline of about 3%. U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that military actions against Iran will “continue for a while longer,” as oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel, putting global risk assets under pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million during the same period, ending a four-week trend of inflows, while the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 9, indicating “extreme fear” in the market.

Geopolitical Risk: “Operation Epic Fury” Continues to Suppress Market Sentiment

The U.S. military’s “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has targeted over 11,000 objectives as of late March. Vance mentioned in an interview that the operation aims to fundamentally weaken Iran’s threat capabilities, and that “the vast majority of military targets have been essentially completed,” but further progress is still required.

The U.S. Central Command also announced that the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, carrying about 3,500 Marines, has entered the Middle East area of responsibility, indicating that the ceasefire timeline remains highly uncertain. U.S. intelligence obtained by Reuters also shows that only about one-third of Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles have been destroyed, contrasting with the more optimistic public statements from some officials.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries a significant amount of global oil transport, has seen ongoing conflicts that continue to raise inflation expectations, further constricting the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates and directly suppressing the valuation logic for risk assets like Bitcoin.

ETF Capital Outflows and Fed Policy Shift: Dual Pressure on the Macro Level

(Source: SoSoValue)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $296 million during the week of March 23 to 27; Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $206 million in the same period, indicating a short-term shift in institutional funds toward defensive positions.

Simultaneously, structural changes on the macro front are brewing, fundamentally altering market expectations regarding the Fed’s policy path:

Rate Hike Expectations Return to Pricing: The market has currently priced in about an 18 basis point rate hike, with short-term expectations for rate cuts nearly fully absorbed.

Non-Farm Employment Becomes a Key Observation Window: February’s employment unexpectedly shrank by 92,000, while March is expected to see an addition of about 48,000; if the data remains resilient, the consensus of “high rates lasting longer” will be further strengthened.

Inflation Pressures Remain Elevated: The situation in the Middle East combined with high oil prices makes the path to cooling inflation more complicated.

ISM services PMI and job vacancy data will also be released this week, providing the market with more reference signals regarding economic momentum.

Miner Capitulation Signals Emerge: MARA Holdings Sells 15,133 BTC

(Source: CryptoQuant)

The Miner Position Index (MPI) fell to -1.04 this week, marking the third lowest point in history. CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente pointed out that this value indicates that the BTC transferred to exchanges by miners is far below the annual average, structurally reducing selling pressure, which is considered a potential bullish signal. He also cautioned, “Without a clear confirmation of demand expansion, including spot capital inflows, ETF inflows, or derivative position establishment, low MPI alone cannot lead to sustained increases.”

A report from CoinShares indicated that 20% of Bitcoin miners are showing signs of capitulation, with the weighted average cost basis for publicly traded miners reaching $79,995 per BTC. Major miner MARA Holdings announced this week that it sold 15,133 BTC, cashing out about $1.1 billion, with the funds used to repurchase company bonds, indicating that financial pressures in the mining industry continue to accumulate. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently about $2.37 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 56.1%.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core reason for Bitcoin’s decline today?

This round of decline is driven by three factors: the ongoing U.S. military actions against Iran raising oil prices and risk aversion; a net outflow of $296 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs; and the market re-pricing the Fed’s rate hike expectations, compressing the valuation space for risk assets.

Does significant ETF outflow indicate that institutions are bearish on Bitcoin in the long term?

This week’s ETF outflows mainly reflect a defensive capital adjustment under short-term geopolitical risks, not a fundamental shift in institutional long-term holdings. Analysts point out that Bitcoin’s next trend will still depend on the overall evolution of macroeconomic and geopolitical situations.

What significance do miner capitulation signals have for future market trends?

A drop in MPI to historical lows generally indicates a reduction in selling pressure from miners, and historically, such signals often accompany price stabilization. However, analysts emphasize that confirmation of simultaneous spot capital inflows or ETF demand expansion is needed for the signal to have substantial reference value.