Why Is Bitcoin Up Today? Hormuz Blockade Triggers Short Squeeze and a BTC Test of $75k

On April 13, Bitcoin rose from its early-session low of $70,741, reaching a high of $74,900 during the session and edging toward the $75,000 level. The main driving forces came from two directions: after Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, traders began viewing Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge asset; a massive net short position accumulated as the funding rate continued to turn negative ran into liquidations, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations totaling millions of dollars around the $70,000 support level.

The Trigger Mechanism for Short Covering: The Reverse Effect of the Blockade News

(Source: Trading View)

Trump announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, initially putting selling pressure on global risk assets; but within a few hours, market perspectives began to diverge. Some traders started to position Bitcoin as a non-sovereign safe-haven asset. Capital flowed from traditional risk assets such as the stock market into the crypto market, forming buy-side support.

The key to triggering this round of sharp gains was the short-position structure that had been built up earlier. Before the weekend, Bitcoin’s funding rate had been turning negative for a sustained period, indicating that short positions were severely overcrowded. When buy orders entered near the $70,000 key support level, the overly concentrated short positions began to face a chain of forced liquidations, accelerating a rapid rally from the lows to $74,900.

This upswing also tested the upper edge of the consolidation range that Bitcoin has maintained since February—roughly a choppy range between $65,000 and $75,000—which has been a multi-month correction period after Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.

Structural Support: Institutional ETF Inflows and Corporate Net Accumulation

In addition to short covering, this Bitcoin rally also had structural buy-side support behind it. In March and April, spot Bitcoin ETFs once again saw net inflows. Institutional capital continued to enter through the ETF channel, which is an important reason the $68,000 to $70,000 support level was able to hold after multiple retests. Strategy continued to add 13,927 BTC this week; it currently holds 780,897 BTC, further strengthening the market’s expectation of ongoing institutional accumulation. The simultaneous growth in ETF inflows and the scale of corporate Bitcoin holdings forms the structural support cited by long-term holders.

Key Technical Levels and Near-Term Risks: $75,000 Is the Line Between Bulls and Bears

A large number of short positions have piled up around the $75,000 range. If Bitcoin can effectively break out and hold above it with strong trading volume, it could theoretically trigger further short-squeeze momentum and open the upside path toward $80,000.

However, near-term downside risk should not be ignored:

Tax-season selling pressure: Before the U.S. tax filing deadline on April 15, holders in the U.S. may sell, weakening spot demand

Inflation risk: The Hormuz situation has pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation expectations and potentially delaying the Fed’s rate-cut schedule

Geopolitical reversal: If U.S.-Iran talks achieve a breakthrough and the blockade eases, safe-haven buying may fade, bringing near-term selling pressure

Test of key support levels: If the $72,000 to $73,000 range cannot be defended, the price may fall back toward around $68,000

From a seasonal perspective, April has historically been more favorable for Bitcoin—since 2013, about 69% of April closing prices have been higher than the prior month; but in April 2026, performance has been below the historical average due to persistent macro headwinds. As of now, the cumulative gain in the second quarter is about 8.64%.

U.S.-Iran Negotiation Progress: The Possibility of Extended Ceasefire May Dominate the Outlook

According to CNN, the Trump administration is discussing arranging a second round of face-to-face U.S.-Iran talks before the ceasefire expires this week, with Islamabad and Geneva listed as potential locations. Turkey is actively bridging differences between the two sides, and the ceasefire deadline may also be extended.

Market watchers note that each development in U.S.-Iran negotiations sends a direct price signal to Bitcoin: breakthroughs in talks often bring short-term selling pressure as safe-haven sentiment cools, while escalation of conflict has the opposite effect, boosting Bitcoin’s safe-haven buying. Traders are currently closely watching the $70,000 support level and the $75,000 resistance band as core signposts for judging the next move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Bitcoin up today? What are the core driving factors?

This rally is driven by two forces: first, after Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some traders started treating Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge asset, which boosted capital inflows; second, overcrowded short positions accumulated over the long term with the funding rate turning negative encountered forced liquidations around the $70,000 support level—short covering accelerated and propelled this rally.

Can Bitcoin keep rising and break above $75,000?

$75,000 is currently the most critical technical resistance level, and a successful breakout requires strong trading volume to accompany it. If it manages to hold above it, it could trigger further short-squeeze action and open the channel toward $80,000. However, April 15 tax-season selling, concerns about inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty all pose downside risks to upside momentum.

How does U.S.-Iran negotiation progress affect Bitcoin’s price action?

The evolution of the U.S.-Iran situation has a two-way impact on Bitcoin: if talks yield a breakthrough and tensions ease, safe-haven funds may leave Bitcoin, bringing near-term pressure; if talks collapse or the blockade escalates, Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal could rise further. The second round of talks is currently expected to be held around April 16, and the outcome will be an important indicator to watch for near-term price action.