Wintermute Interprets Trump's Pause on Iran Attack: Bitcoin Three Scenario Simulations, Bullish Push to $80K, Bearish Test at $65K

Trump announces a five-day pause on Iran attacks, crypto markets react violently within 20 minutes, BTC surges over 5%, oil prices crash 14%. Wintermute OTC trader Jasper de Maere posts three potential scenarios, with the most optimistic targeting $80K, and the most pessimistic testing $65K.
(Background: Iran threatens to push oil prices above $200 and attacks two ships in the Hormuz Strait)
(Additional context: Wintermute states Ethereum OTC market is “scarce as hen’s teeth”: signals investors should understand)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Geopolitical cooling vs. hawkish Fed
• Gold plunges, Ethereum staking yields become “institutional favorite”
• Scenario 1: Diplomatic progress continues, BTC challenges $74K-$76K
• Scenario 2: Testing $65K; Scenario 3: Moving toward $80K
• The March 27 options expiry is the key upcoming event

As Middle East tensions temporarily ease, the crypto market also gains some breathing room. Wintermute OTC trader Jasper de Maere’s latest post analyzes that the market is currently in a “geopolitical whip” state, with Trump’s five-day attack pause becoming the short-term core driver of asset pricing.

Geopolitical cooling vs. hawkish Fed

Jasper notes that Bitcoin performed strongly earlier this week, rebounding from below $68,000 to over $70,000, briefly hitting $71,000 intraday. This rebound mainly reflects the market shedding the “risk premium” accumulated from Middle East conflicts.

However, macro pressures remain:

• Fed hawkish dot plot: The Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with most officials projecting only one or no rate cuts by 2026.
• Higher rates for longer: Powell emphasizes that rate cuts depend on sustained inflation progress; markets have fully priced out rate cuts before fall.

Gold plunges, Ethereum staking yields become “institutional favorite”

Interestingly, Bitcoin outperformed safe-haven assets under macro pressure. Gold experienced its worst week since 1983 last week, dropping over 10%, mainly due to the DXY breaking above 100, triggering leveraged long liquidations.

In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) became an outlier amid this turmoil. Jasper observes that in a “higher-for-longer” rate environment, Ethereum’s staking yield has shown significant appeal to institutions:

“Despite market volatility, Ethereum ETF saw a record inflow of $160.8 million last week. With interest rates potentially staying high long-term, ETH’s yield proposition is winning investor favor.”

Scenario 1: Diplomatic progress continues, BTC challenges $74K-$76K

Jasper de Maere believes that the attack pause itself has lowered geopolitical risk premiums, and the market is now readjusting positions ahead of the March 27 options expiry. Currently, Bitcoin’s max pain point is around $70K.

If oil prices stabilize near $100 in the coming days and diplomatic negotiations make progress, inflation fears could ease, and the previously priced-out rate cut expectations might partially return. Positive signals from Hormuz Strait shipping could also eliminate macro resistance.

Jasper indicates that in this scenario, BTC could push toward the $74K–$76K resistance zone, which has previously blocked breakthroughs twice and remains a key technical hurdle.

Scenario 2: Testing $65K; Scenario 3: Moving toward $80K

If the five-day pause ends with failed negotiations and Hormuz Strait shipping restrictions persist, oil risk premiums will rise again. Persistent inflation concerns will further delay Fed rate cuts, pushing markets back into risk-off mode. In this case, BTC could retest the mid-$60K support.

The most optimistic scenario involves ongoing conflict easing, shipping gradually normalizing, with three conditions aligning:

• Inflation pressures easing: energy costs decline, CPI expectations lowered
• Fed policy flexibility: gaining more room to cut rates earlier
• Institutional accumulation: buying dips continues, macro environment for risk assets improves

In this scenario, Jasper believes BTC could reach toward $80K.

The March 27 options expiry is the key upcoming event

BTC is currently steady around $70K–$71K, right at the max pain point. Before Thursday’s options settlement, markets are especially sensitive to geopolitical signals, with any negotiation news likely amplified.

Jasper’s three scenarios all hinge on one core variable: whether Hormuz Strait can resume normal navigation. Oil tanker movements, Iran’s diplomatic responses, and Fed officials’ comments are intertwined, determining BTC’s direction around March 27.