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From the 4-hour Candlestick, the price surged to 4109.87 and then fell sharply, currently in the pullback and consolidation recovery phase.
Let's take a look at the EMA logic:
- The short-term EMA is more sensitive to recent prices, while the medium and long-term EMAs reflect trend stability.
- If the 12EMA is above the 50EMA, and the 50EMA is above the 100EMA, the short-term is relatively strong, but the overall trend needs to be combined with the position; if the short-term EMA turns or forms a "death cross" with the medium to long-term EMA, then the pullback pressure is high.
2. Key Support and Resistance
- Resistance level: The previous high of 4109.87 is a strong resistance, and a rebound close to this level is likely to face pressure and fall back.
- Support level: The previous low of 3674.44 is strong support; the current price near 3845.38 serves as a short-term support reference.
3. Specific operational recommendations (by scenario)
Scenario 1: Aggressive, betting on a short-term pullback
If the current price is in the range of 3845 - 3892, and the 12EMA has turned upwards, with the price stabilizing above the 12EMA:
- Long: Entry point around 3850, target at 3950 - 4000 (near 50EMA or previous consolidation platform), stop loss at 3800 (if it falls below recent minor support, guard against trend weakening).
Scenario 2: Relatively conservative, waiting for a clear trend
If the price pulls back to the 4000 - 4050 range, and the 12EMA crosses below the 50EMA forming a "death cross":
- Short: Entry point around 4020, target looking at 3800 - 3700 (testing previous support), stop loss at 4100 (if it breaks the previous high, then the trend reverses, close short position).
- If the price breaks through 4100 and stabilizes, it is necessary to timely chase the long position;
- If it falls below 3674, the short position can be held (but position size needs to be controlled, and simulation should also prevent excessive aggression).
It is necessary to combine real-time Candlestick patterns (such as bullish engulfing, bearish evening star) with the dynamic changes of EMA to flexibly respond to trend "continuation/reversal" in order to grasp the rhythm more accurately~