#中美贸易协商 The Fed implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, adjusting the interest rate range to 3.75%-4%. However, the market showed a reverse trend, and there is a deeper logic behind this phenomenon.

The market decline is mainly due to three core factors:

First of all, the expectation effect has been priced in ahead of time. Investors had already speculated on the interest rate cut a month ago, leading to a price increase in advance. When the policy was actually implemented, it instead became a signal for funds to take profits, triggering a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of sell-off.

Secondly, there is a clear division of opinion within the Fed. Two officials hold differing views on this rate cut (one believes the cut is insufficient, while the other completely opposes it), and this divergence exposes the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, prompting large funds to choose to avoid risks.

Third, inflationary pressures still exist. The Fed has clearly stated that "inflation levels remain elevated," suggesting that future rate cut space may be limited, which has cooled market expectations for an accommodative monetary policy.

The impact on the cryptocurrency market can be divided into different dimensions:

In the short term, the basic liquidity is supported, mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC/ETH will not experience a collapse, but will still exhibit significant volatility;

Second-tier cryptocurrencies face greater risks. In an environment where funds are becoming cautious, small-cap tokens are prone to sell-offs.

In the long run, due to unstable economic fundamentals, risk assets are unlikely to form a sustained strong upward trend.

In the current market situation, investors should:

Avoid blindly following the trend to buy at high positions; the rise after the policy news is implemented may be a short-term trap.

Maintain sufficient liquidity and wait for investment opportunities during market panic.

Closely monitor the Fed's subsequent policy direction and flexibly adjust the position structure.

The market environment is constantly changing, but the fundamental investment logic remains the same—understanding the relationship between the interest rate cycle and market trends is essential to better grasp the investment rhythm and avoid becoming a victim of buying high and selling low.