These days, short-term trading has become quite difficult. On one hand, the insider giant whales at 1011 still have floating losses on long positions that haven't been closed yet. Additionally, the US is approaching Christmas, so there may still be some small positive news coming out gradually. On the other hand, the probability of Japan raising interest rates on the 19th is already 98%, which is a bearish signal. Although the market has already priced in some of this, last Friday's US stocks and gold collectively fell, which is also related to expectations of Japanese rate hikes. Therefore, short-term bullish and bearish trades are both hard to execute. Personally, I continue with my previous weekly-level view: wait for the 1 to 5 month correction. Only after Powell's official retirement and if the new Fed chair Haskett can cut interest rates by 50 basis points and significantly expand balance sheet to buy long-term 10-year government bonds, and when reserve funds are exhausted and large-scale money printing begins, will the market move out of its bottom.
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These days, short-term trading has become quite difficult. On one hand, the insider giant whales at 1011 still have floating losses on long positions that haven't been closed yet. Additionally, the US is approaching Christmas, so there may still be some small positive news coming out gradually. On the other hand, the probability of Japan raising interest rates on the 19th is already 98%, which is a bearish signal. Although the market has already priced in some of this, last Friday's US stocks and gold collectively fell, which is also related to expectations of Japanese rate hikes. Therefore, short-term bullish and bearish trades are both hard to execute. Personally, I continue with my previous weekly-level view: wait for the 1 to 5 month correction. Only after Powell's official retirement and if the new Fed chair Haskett can cut interest rates by 50 basis points and significantly expand balance sheet to buy long-term 10-year government bonds, and when reserve funds are exhausted and large-scale money printing begins, will the market move out of its bottom.