#甲骨文 , is something about to happen?

Recently, its credit default swap (CDS) has surged abnormally, and this signal is worth paying close attention to for everyone watching the AI track. 🧐
If Oracle truly encounters credit issues, the impact will not be limited to itself; the entire AI technology sector could experience significant fluctuations.
From bond market pricing, it’s clear that the market is significantly increasing the perceived credit risk of #Oracle . Historically, as a high-quality large US tech company, Oracle’s CDS has maintained a range of 30–50 bps for a long time, which is essentially “quasi-sovereign” safe assets.
The last time CDS spiked noticeably was in 2022. At that time, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, leading to systemic sell-offs in tech stocks and tech bonds. Oracle’s CDS temporarily soared to 120–140 bps, a typical macro liquidity shock.
But this time, the background is completely different.
No rate hikes, no obvious liquidity crisis, and macro-level systemic risk is not apparent. The core of market panic is only one thing:
Is AI capital expenditure excessively high, potentially eroding the asset-liability balance sheets of tech companies?
In other words, the bond market is conducting an early “stress test” for the AI track.
When CDS rises rapidly without macro shocks, it indicates that funds are beginning to worry:
Will high-intensity computing power investments and ongoing data center expansion turn into real financial pressure in the coming quarters?
This is not just emotional noise; it’s a change in credit market pricing, with levels clearly higher than stock price fluctuations.
It’s still too early to say “something will happen,” but this signal at least indicates one thing:
The AI narrative is shifting from “growth imagination” to a stage of “asset-liability constraints.”
Hope everything goes smoothly.
But the change in this CDS warrants continuous monitoring. 🧐‍ #Oracle #AI #CreditRisk #CDS