U.S. non-farm payrolls just came out, and this show is a bit interesting——on the surface, 64,000 new jobs were added, but looking closer, the unemployment rate actually jumped, and last month's data was even forcibly revised downward by 100,000. This thing is really unstable.

Where's the problem? The "aftereffects" of the government shutdown have messed up the statistics. Even Powell has preemptively warned: don’t take this data too seriously. The market's reaction was unexpectedly calm, even somewhat optimistic.

Why? Because this precisely gives the Federal Reserve the room to step down gradually. Employment hasn't collapsed, but it is indeed softening, and inflation is also easing—this combination, isn't it textbook-level "soft landing"? Isn't this the most convenient excuse to start the rate-cutting cycle?

Traders have already bet with real money: rate cuts will come earlier next year, and the magnitude will be even more aggressive.

Now the question is, what does this mean for us?

The logic is actually straightforward. Once rate cut expectations heat up, the dollar will gradually depreciate. Global liquidity will loosen again, and hot money will inevitably seek high-yield places. As a risk asset, the crypto market—especially major players like Bitcoin and Ethereum—will naturally become the most concentrated flow of funds.

The Fed’s script is already written: inflation is under control, employment is cooling down. Next, it’s all about how liquidity easing plays out. This could very well become the most core market narrative of 2025.

Rather than getting tangled in those second-by-second price fluctuations, it’s better to see what smart money is doing—they are already positioning themselves in advance for the next cycle.