#以太坊行情技术解读 Triple Witch Day collision with central bank policies, how intense can the risk stacking this week be?

This Friday is Triple Witch Day, occurring four times a year, but each time it’s enough to stir the market. On this day when options and futures all expire simultaneously, trading volume will significantly increase, volatility will rise, and the market will find it hard to stay stable. Investor sentiment is easily swayed by rapidly changing market conditions.

But what we should really be cautious about is not just this technical event. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will be announced, which is the key variable. Recently, the market has already partially priced in the possibility of a rate hike by Japan—at that time, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply in response, and the Nikkei index also declined significantly overnight. The biggest concern in the market is whether yen carry trades will be forced to close, potentially triggering a chain reaction similar to the summer of 2024.

Japan’s long-term interest rates are basically anchored, making the yen the lowest-cost borrowing currency globally. The strategies of institutions and investors are clear: borrow yen to buy dollars, then pour into US stocks, tech stocks, and crypto assets—these high-yield assets. As long as the yen continues to depreciate, this leverage game can go on indefinitely.

Where is the problem? Once the yen starts to appreciate, borrowing costs rise, and trades that were previously profitable immediately become burdens. At this point, most funds won’t gradually reduce their positions but will rush to close out and recover their capital. Instead of selling yen, they buy it back; the usual approach is to sell off high-risk assets—stocks and cryptocurrencies—turning them into casualties.

This week presents a double uncertainty: the technical impact of Triple Witch Day combined with the fundamental impact of the central bank policy expectations. In the short term, market volatility will be high. It’s recommended to control your positions, avoid chasing highs, and prioritize risk management.