The changes in the crypto world over the past few years can be summarized as expectations "sliding downhill":
In 2021, everyone was shouting about hundredfold and thousandfold gains—that was called a dream.
By 2024, tenfold gains have become synonymous with bragging.
By 2025, even three or five times gains require pleading with phrases like "please."
The most realistic winning strategy now? Just preserving capital. Once this is said, the applause is more enthusiastic than when people used to shout about hitting the daily limit.
From "meeting on the moon" to "don't crash to zero," we've gone th

#美联储降息 ETH Today Lunchtime Market Overview: Repeated Battles in the Downtrend Channel
【The Truth About the Bull-Bear Tug-of-War】
ETH has been struggling since dropping from 3170, with the daily moving average system acting as resistance, and the price finding no breathing room below. However, a double bottom formed at 2870 on the 4-hour chart, firmly supporting the downward momentum. Currently, both bulls and bears are stuck here, unable to gain the upper hand.
The bottom line for bulls is in the 2870-2890 range. After a quick spike yesterday, it quickly pulled back, indicating some buyers are

#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Misreading the market direction is not really a big problem; the key lies in whether you can cut losses in time and make decisive adjustments. Important economic indicators like non-farm payroll data can quickly change market expectations. Holding on stubbornly only worsens losses. Instead of betting on the direction, it's better to learn to switch strategies flexibly—exit immediately when wrong, adjust your approach, and re-enter main assets like $BTC and $ETH , which can still yield profits in subsequent market movements. The overall market trend is difficult to predict comp

The Bank of Japan made a historic decision this week, officially abandoning nearly thirty years of zero interest rate policy. This is the first rate hike since 1995, with the rate expected to rise to 0.75%, and the market assigns a probability as high as 90%. The subsequent chain reaction is spreading across global capital markets.
The most immediate change is in the exchange rate. Japanese government bond yields have soared to their highest levels since 2007, and the USD/JPY exchange rate is approaching a critical level. As the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, the Bank of Japan hol

#加密生态动态追踪 BNB Market Observation Notes
Yesterday early morning, BNB surged over 20 points then pulled back, then fluctuated around 872, forming a W-shaped shakeout pattern, and is now still in this correction phase.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bullish signals are quite clear. A large bullish candle directly engulfed the previous bearish candle, the price stabilized above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the upper and middle bands are spreading apart upward; the MACD is showing a golden cross and expanding, combined with increasing volume, indicating that funds are starting to r

#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 BTC is stuck at this price level, and the range fluctuation is a bit annoying. The old method still works—stick to the stop-loss line and hold on, no need to fuss. The US non-farm payroll data this time exceeded expectations, but the short-term market still depends on subsequent performance. Let's take a break and observe.

#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 PTB feels like it can't hold up this wave. After reaching a high point earlier, it directly plunged, with a single-day decline approaching 30%. It's clear that market sentiment is somewhat restless.
From a technical perspective, $PTB's strong resistance is around 0.009. Yesterday's probe directly hit near 0.008. Now, even with a rebound, caution is needed as there is a possibility of retesting lower levels. In this kind of market, the prudent approach is to stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer signals before taking action.
On the macro front, the US non-farm payroll data ex

#以太坊行情技术解读 Recently, the rebound momentum of $ETH has indeed been weak. When it was rising, it could still outperform Bitcoin, but once it reached the 3000 level, it lost momentum.
The short position I set earlier has not been triggered yet, but from the current market situation, it seems likely to continue fluctuating within this range. As long as the recent support level is not broken in the short term, there might still be a chance to test the 3050 line again.
So my short position is still open, just waiting for the market to give a clear signal. Sometimes, the gains from patiently waiting

If the capital is within 100,000 yuan, those complex tactical routines are basically useless. Instead of obsessing over advanced strategies, it's better to master a simple and straightforward method that truly works.
To be honest, the core of this method boils down to two words: follow the trend. If you catch the trend correctly, hold on tightly; if you get it wrong, admit defeat immediately.
**First Trick: Only choose strong coins**
Look at the MACD on the daily K chart and only participate in bullish cross signals. For more precision, wait for the MACD to generate a golden cross above the ze

#以太坊行情技术解读 Triple Witch Day collision with central bank policies, how intense can the risk stacking this week be?
This Friday is Triple Witch Day, occurring four times a year, but each time it’s enough to stir the market. On this day when options and futures all expire simultaneously, trading volume will significantly increase, volatility will rise, and the market will find it hard to stay stable. Investor sentiment is easily swayed by rapidly changing market conditions.
But what we should really be cautious about is not just this technical event. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate

The latest released US economic data directly relates to BTC's recent trend. To start with the conclusion—this set of data is a genuine positive for the crypto market.
The November unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.4%. Not only did it fail to meet the target, but it also broke through the 4.5% threshold, with a significant deviation from expectations. The unemployment rate is the most straightforward indicator of the labor market. There's a commonly overlooked logic: even if the number of new jobs added is decent, a rapid increase in the unemployment r

#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 $MAGMA "Fishy Little Guardian Work Log"
🐱 The shift has been updated. Our work philosophy is simple: if you can lie down, don't stand; if you can stay silent, don't make a sound. Anyway, for major events like non-farm payroll data, it's better to rely on professionals.

After a senior executive from a leading exchange entered a certain project, the project's attitude seemed to turn negative, and the efforts to support the price clearly diminished. Compared to the rebound momentum of other similar projects, this project is still struggling in a downward channel. From a trading perspective, short positions remain the main strategy to hedge against the selling pressure on the spot side.
Upon careful consideration, it becomes clear—can a project really sustain a valuation of tens of billions of dollars just because a certain celebrity is involved? This logic is o

#以太坊行情技术解读 Ethereum and Bitcoin Morning Market Trend Review
Yesterday's market movement was quite interesting. Bitcoin retraced from the high of 88143, dipped to a low of 87015, then stabilized around 87900. Ethereum's pace was similar, falling from 2974 to a low of 2901, then rebounding back to around 2960 in the morning. This series of moves resulted in a combination of one short and one long position, which was somewhat rewarding—Bitcoin gained over 2000 points in the entire cycle, and Ethereum also made a profit of 98 points.
Looking at the four-hour chart, the situation is quite intrigui

Recent market panic seems to be more than just an emotional issue. Multiple forces are exerting pressure simultaneously within the same time window. To understand what is happening now, we need to see through the three layers of logic behind it.
**Layer One: Macro Liquidity Tightening**
The ripple effect of the Bank of Japan's rate hike is deeper than it appears on the surface. Over the years, the low-cost yen has been a gold mine for global arbitrage trading. Once borrowing costs rise, leveraged funds must sell risk assets to recover. Cryptocurrency markets? Of course, they can't escape. This

#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 The bears are holding the 8500 level tightly, waiting for a move from the Bank of Japan. The crypto market is likely to face a wave.
Recently, US non-farm payroll data has been quite strong, and just looking at the numbers can feel the market's tension. If Japan really starts an interest rate hike cycle, the signal of liquidity tightening will transmit to the global markets—including cryptocurrencies. Historical experience shows that every time major central banks shift to tightening, crypto prices tend to come under pressure.
This is the current situation: the bulls have hit a

These past few days, the private messages are all asking the same question: Japan is going to raise interest rates, should the crypto market run? I understand everyone's panic, but the market has never been driven by guesses; it speaks with data. Instead of panicking blindly, it's better to look back at history and observe the patterns.
Let's first review the market reactions to Japan's previous rate hikes.
In March 2024, Japan officially bid farewell to the era of negative interest rates. On the day the news was announced, the crypto market indeed took an 8% plunge. It sounds frightening, but

#以太坊行情技术解读 $PTB This wave of market movement is indeed not simple, rising from 0.003994 all the way to 0.006879, and now pulling back to around 0.0068.
The direction I mentioned earlier is still valid — this support level has indeed played a role. Many people were shaken out at the bottom, and only now are they realizing it.
By the way, a quick mention of the coordinated performance of $FORM and $TRUTH. These small-cap tokens tend to have large fluctuations, presenting both opportunities and risks.
What do you think about this rebound? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

#以太坊行情技术解读 Don't rush to sell your top-tier coins now. Wait until the rebound reaches around 89,000 before considering adding more positions, and make a double investment to seize the opportunity. For $BTC, setting a take-profit at 85,800 is sufficient; just wait patiently. For $ETH, 2850 is a good exit point, and you can preset the order in advance. $BNB should follow the rhythm as well; don't be scared by short-term fluctuations. In this kind of volatile market, patience is key—hold what should be held, sell what should be sold.

Recently, the market has been fluctuating nonstop, especially after the non-farm payroll data was released, causing even more intense volatility. Over the past couple of days, I reviewed some trades and want to share my understanding of order execution.
The most critical step before opening a position is to quantify the potential profit space. This is not based on intuition but on a concrete assessment of how much profit this wave of market movement can offer. Only when the potential is large enough is it worth building a position in batches. When the market truly moves, you'll have the opport