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BITCOIN IS AT A DECISION LEVEL RIGHT NOW
$BTC is trading right around a level that has mattered in every major cycle.
That level is the True Market Mean Price (TMMP) -- basically the average on-chain cost basis of real investors (excluding miners). It’s where most capital actually entered the market.
Historically:
🚨 Above TMMP → dips get bought
🚨 Below TMMP → rallies get sold
Right now, TMMP sits around $81.5K.
The second chart adds context using the AVIV Ratio, which tracks investor profitability and positioning. Current AVIV levels look similar to past mid-cycle consolidation phases -- not tops, not crashes.
What this tells us:
📊 This isn’t panic selling
📊 This is a profitability reset
📊 The market is testing conviction, not collapsing
If $BTC holds above $81.5K, it shows investors are defending their cost basis. If it loses that level, history suggests a deeper search for demand.