A global financial game that lasted for exactly thirty years is officially coming to an end this week. The Bank of Japan's unlimited liquidity supply mechanism is about to be completely shut down.
**The Invisible Driver of the Past Thirty Years**
For a long time, the Bank of Japan maintained an near-zero interest rate policy. What does this mean? Borrowing yen was almost free. Institutional investors and hedge funds around the world borrowed cheap yen, then exchanged it for US dollars, euros, and heavily bought various risk assets. US stocks, US bonds, cryptocurrencies, and even pension fund core portfolios have all benefited from this.
This strategy is professionally known as "yen carry trade," with a scale reaching trillions of dollars. It’s like an invisible pipeline continuously injecting cheap funds into global markets. Thanks to this pipeline, the soaring prices of various risk assets over the past decades are hardly surprising.
**The Rules of the Game Are About to Change**
This week, the Bank of Japan plans to implement its most aggressive rate hike in thirty years. This move will trigger a series of chain reactions: first, the cost of borrowing yen will immediately rise, no longer nearly free. Second, investment positions relying on cheap yen leverage around the world will face forced liquidation pressure. To repay yen loans, these institutions must sell off their holdings of US stocks, US bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.
This is not just a routine central bank decision; it is essentially a structural shock to the global liquidity landscape. As the largest and cheapest source of funds gradually dries up, the asset bubbles inflated by "cheap money" will face reassessment.
**Points Market Participants Need to Watch**
During this transition, key phenomena to monitor include: Will market volatility spike rapidly? Will the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks significantly strengthen in the short term, leading to synchronized declines? Can your investment portfolio withstand the shock of global "passive deleveraging"?
These questions are not alarmist. When a long-term funding pipeline suddenly tightens, market reactions tend to be more intense than expected. The valuation logic of many assets is built on cheap liquidity. Once this foundation cracks, the re-pricing process could be very violent.
An era is indeed coming to an end. From unlimited "water sources" to limited "rations," global asset markets are entering a strange new phase. How to navigate this transition may be a question every investor needs to seriously consider. The performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and others during this adjustment remains to be seen.
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A global financial game that lasted for exactly thirty years is officially coming to an end this week. The Bank of Japan's unlimited liquidity supply mechanism is about to be completely shut down.
**The Invisible Driver of the Past Thirty Years**
For a long time, the Bank of Japan maintained an near-zero interest rate policy. What does this mean? Borrowing yen was almost free. Institutional investors and hedge funds around the world borrowed cheap yen, then exchanged it for US dollars, euros, and heavily bought various risk assets. US stocks, US bonds, cryptocurrencies, and even pension fund core portfolios have all benefited from this.
This strategy is professionally known as "yen carry trade," with a scale reaching trillions of dollars. It’s like an invisible pipeline continuously injecting cheap funds into global markets. Thanks to this pipeline, the soaring prices of various risk assets over the past decades are hardly surprising.
**The Rules of the Game Are About to Change**
This week, the Bank of Japan plans to implement its most aggressive rate hike in thirty years. This move will trigger a series of chain reactions: first, the cost of borrowing yen will immediately rise, no longer nearly free. Second, investment positions relying on cheap yen leverage around the world will face forced liquidation pressure. To repay yen loans, these institutions must sell off their holdings of US stocks, US bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.
This is not just a routine central bank decision; it is essentially a structural shock to the global liquidity landscape. As the largest and cheapest source of funds gradually dries up, the asset bubbles inflated by "cheap money" will face reassessment.
**Points Market Participants Need to Watch**
During this transition, key phenomena to monitor include: Will market volatility spike rapidly? Will the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks significantly strengthen in the short term, leading to synchronized declines? Can your investment portfolio withstand the shock of global "passive deleveraging"?
These questions are not alarmist. When a long-term funding pipeline suddenly tightens, market reactions tend to be more intense than expected. The valuation logic of many assets is built on cheap liquidity. Once this foundation cracks, the re-pricing process could be very violent.
An era is indeed coming to an end. From unlimited "water sources" to limited "rations," global asset markets are entering a strange new phase. How to navigate this transition may be a question every investor needs to seriously consider. The performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and others during this adjustment remains to be seen.