#美联储降息 There is a speech to watch tonight at 9:30 PM—Waller is going to speak. This guy holds significant influence within the Federal Reserve, especially in the past two years, he has made frequent moves and often sees the direction earlier than others. The market generally regards him as a barometer for policy signals.

Based on his usual temperament, he’s not the hardcore hawkish type. Instead, he’s very data-driven, and at key moments, he tends to acknowledge that inflation is falling before the market does. Because of this style, whenever he changes his wording or tone in a speech, the entire market quickly adjusts its expectations.

How to interpret tonight? Focus on three points:

First, does he acknowledge the sustainability of the current inflation decline?
Second, will he emphasize the suppressive effects of high interest rates on the economy and finance?
Third, does he hint that "such high interest rate policies are no longer as necessary"?

Scenario 1: He continues to say "We need to see more inflation data, it’s too early to talk about adjustments"—this will suppress market expectations for rate cuts, the dollar and US Treasury yields will rise, risk assets may experience emotional corrections, and the crypto market will likely stay defensive.

Scenario 2: He says "Current interest rate levels are already sufficiently restrictive" or "Inflation is clearly moving towards the target"—even without giving a specific timeline, the market will interpret this as a dovish signal. This could boost risk appetite, and both stocks and cryptocurrencies may start a recovery rally.

An important logic here:
The power of Waller’s speeches mainly comes from the element of "unexpectedness."

The market bets he will loosen, but he appears cautious—trapping the bulls;
The market is on the defensive, but he slightly eases—causing many to miss out.

So, don’t rush to bet tonight. The key things to watch are: which moves first—US Treasury yields or the dollar, whether risk assets follow or move inversely, and whether trading volume suddenly spikes. These details reveal what the market is truly thinking.

Waller himself doesn’t create trends, but he’s often the last to adjust market sentiment before a trend begins. Understanding this, tonight’s volatility isn’t just noise but an opportunity.

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