#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 On December 19th, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points. On the surface, it seems to be a done deal, but the real test is whether this move can break the market's expectations in advance.

Looking back at history, the performance of Bitcoin during the Bank of Japan's first three rate hike cycles is quite telling:
In March 2024, BTC shrank by 24%
In July 2024, it dropped further to 30%
Most recently in January 2025, it fell to 32%

One coincidence, two coincidences, three times it becomes a pattern. Will this December's move continue to follow this routine? The answer depends on the subsequent market trend.

Currently, the most painful thing in the market isn't the news itself, but that many have already digested the bearish signals, started to go all-in, and don't want to find a decent support level to place orders step by step. This is the pattern, and it's also a trap.

My rule is simple: don't predict the direction, only manage risk; don't gamble with full positions, always keep some bullets in hand. When the market presents an opportunity, I will act, but until then, survival is the top priority. This difference is what separates seasoned traders from newcomers.

Those caught in positions can come to exchange ideas, confused traders can also join, especially those who don't even know where the support is—those are the ones who should come. We are all trying to find a way out in this game.

$ETH $pippin