The Fed Chair's "Palace Coup" escalates! Hassett's confidant gains an advantage, Basent confirms large-scale money printing, with each household receiving a $1,000-2,000 tax rebate early next year—Could crypto recreate the pandemic frenzy?

Last night, the non-farm payroll report came in steady, with employment exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate hitting a four-year high of 4.6%. This should have been a positive sign for a January rate cut, but due to data distortion and the December non-farm figures, the probability of a cut only slightly increased to 23-24%. Even more explosive is the escalation of the Federal Reserve Chair “Three Palace Fight”: Waller’s interview votes shifted towards Wosh (winning probability down to 22%), while Haskett regained a lead at 54%. Last night, Basent confirmed a big stimulus at the beginning of next year: $1,000-2,000 tax refunds per household, injecting $100-150 billion into the public’s pockets in Q1! This direct money distribution may recreate the 2020 pandemic relief wave—全民开户炒币炒股 (全民开户 means全民开户, implying widespread account opening for crypto and stocks), crypto may usher in a new frenzy? But 2026 carries significant risks: pause in rate cuts, government shutdown, and Japan’s rate hikes becoming the biggest variables.

Non-farm Payrolls: Data distortion, rate cut expectations not taking off

Key data from last night’s non-farm report:

Reasons:

• Government shutdown caused data distortion, only sentiment guidance.
• December non-farm + unemployment rate are the decisive data.

Market reactions diverged: US stocks (Nasdaq) rose (tech stocks sensitive to liquidity), BTC fluctuated short-term but didn’t move significantly—narrative > data.

Latest updates on the Federal Reserve Chair “Three Palace Fight”

Trump clearly wants low interest rates; the new chair is likely to be dovish.

Haskett’s support says “being Trump’s friend shouldn’t disqualify him,” highlighting close ties. Wall Street fears “political interference,” but it’s positive for risk markets: low rates = easing = increased risk appetite.

Basent confirms big stimulus: $1,000-2,000 tax refunds early next year

Basent approved Trump’s “big stimulus” plan last night:

• $1,000-2,000 tax refunds per household early next year
• $100-150 billion injected into the public’s pockets in Q1

Don’t underestimate direct cash payouts:

• 2020 pandemic relief: Americans received money at home, no place to spend → huge focus shifted to financial markets
• Widespread account opening: countless first-time crypto/stock accounts, trading DOGE, SHIB, NFTs
• This year’s environment is different (no pandemic), but human nature remains: those with money treat subsidies as “lotteries” for speculation, those lacking money see it as financial management

If implemented, the 2026 opening success may rely on this wave: new capital influx → frenzy in risk assets, crypto could recreate the pandemic boom—huge potential.

Risks in 2026: Don’t just look at the positives

Potential hidden dangers:

• Pause rate cuts: inflation is bad / employment too strong, delaying rate cuts.
• Government shutdown: temporary funding only until January 30, high-risk period (this year’s 43-day shutdown was record-breaking, crypto markets were bleak then).
• Four-year cycle inertia: starting to worry about bear markets, funds may exit early.
• Japan rate hikes: confirmed for Friday (December 19), most feared if the meeting hints “continue raising rates next year” + rapid yen appreciation (USD/JPY plummets = global risk assets red alert).

In the short term, Japan’s rate hike is the biggest variable; in the medium term, the stimulus could be a super catalyst.

Narrative over data: outlook for 2026

• Non-farm payrolls are important, but the chair candidate + stimulus narrative influence sentiment more.
• “Insider” Haskett has a high probability of rising, low interest rate easing seems almost certain.
• If direct refunds are implemented, a wave of idle money entering markets may reoccur—crypto and growth stocks at the forefront.
• But risks like inflation, shutdowns, Japan’s rate hikes, etc., require vigilance for short-term volatility.

Trump’s policies are shifting from slogans to implementation; risk markets face short-term pressure (year-end rebalancing + Japan rate hikes), but in the medium term, easing + stimulus dual engines may ignite a new bull run in 2026.

Which part are you most looking forward to? Share in the comments~ A. Big stimulus triggers new capital influx B. Haskett’s rise and low interest rates C. Worry about Japan’s rate hikes crashing markets D. Government shutdown returns

Take it step by step—2026, narrative is king!