Starting next week, we will enter the Christmas market, which is referred to in English as the "Santa Claus Rally." This refers to the performance of the S&P 500 during the week after Christmas, specifically the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the next year. Based on the results, in 79% of cases, the Christmas market sees a rise. The highest increase during this week is 7.4%, while the highest fall is 4.2%. The average increase is around 1.3%.

Based on historical experience, the Christmas market trend is not just a simple seasonal statistical phenomenon, but more like a barometer of market risk appetite. If the market can rise as expected from after Christmas to around New Year's, it usually means that investors are still willing to allocate risk assets despite the lack of new macroeconomic stimulus. This confirms risk appetite at the end of the year and lays the emotional foundation for asset pricing in the new year. Conversely, it often means that risk appetite has not recovered, and subsequently, in January or even over a longer period, the market is more likely to face weakness or repeated fluctuations.

From the perspective of institutional and seasonal factors, on one hand, after the tax-loss harvesting completed in mid-December, funds should flow back into the market. On the other hand, the decrease in institutional trading activity and trading volume during the holiday period means that a small amount of buying can push the index upward while lowering short-term volatility. In addition, the year-end bonus distribution and passive allocation funds from automatic deductions for pensions (such as 401k) may also provide buying support for the market.

Looking at the data for BTC, the turnover rate finally dropped over the weekend, indicating that the actual trading volume from real users is indeed quite low. The high turnover rate during regular days is likely due to fluctuations from quantitative or high-frequency short-term investors. What the weekend shows should reflect the changes of actual holders. However, next week will start the Christmas market, and overall trading volume and turnover rate should decline.