Daily Report 12.20
The news of Japan's interest rate hike has landed, and now it's just a matter of how the market will perform. Will the weekend market rebound? Let's look forward to it.
1. BTC The sideways market seems to have ended, at least yesterday's gains haven't fully retraced. Traders are starting to show buy orders. Let's see if we can see some movement over the weekend;
2. ETH The rebound is decent. It feels like retail investors no longer dare to call for a rally in this wave, with everyone talking about whales and institutions entering the market;
3. SOL Finally the top rebound, a

Currently, it is the fifth day of the week. Over the past three days, BTC has already hit or is about to hit $90,000, then retreated back to around $85,000. Especially last night, the US stock market performed quite well; the S&P and Nasdaq almost recovered all previous losses. However, BTC still remains around $85,000, fluctuating sideways. Investors' sentiment is really poor.
If yesterday's decline was caused by Oracle, leading to a drop in tech stocks and dragging BTC down, then today it seems to be purely an issue of investor sentiment. At least based on ETF data, more investors have shift

The current global financial market situation is characterized by short-term trading expectations of rate cuts and easing, accompanied by a slowdown in inflation pressures.
The 1-year short-term bond yield is declining, reflecting expectations of rate cuts, consistent with the impact of tonight's inflation data.
Meanwhile, the 10-year and 30-year long-term bond yields are also falling, indicating a dual effect of expectations of rate cuts and easing inflation pressures.
However, the US dollar index has weakened, and gold has not strengthened, clearly showing that the market's expectations of r

On the 4-hour level of Ethereum, the level briefly broke through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands following the data release. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, it is in a strong bullish rebound zone. To achieve a higher rally, it needs to stabilize above the middle band in the evening. Currently, there are 3 consecutive bullish candles on the 4-hour chart, indicating effective short-term support and a greater rebound opportunity. For short-term trading, long positions can be further laid out.
The current price is around 2942, with a target of 3042, and a stop loss of 40 points. #BTC #ETH

Ethereum's overall trend remains weak, with limited upward momentum. During the flat session, it broke below 2800 and dipped to around 2790 before rebounding with oscillation. Currently, on the one-hour chart, it is near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The intraday trend is more towards a corrective upward move, but it is not accompanied by significant bullish volume. Tonight, pay attention to CPI news, and I personally lean towards a continued downward move with a break below the recent low.
Ethereum: 2872 short, target 2772, stop 40 points #BTC #ETH

Last night, after the non-farm payrolls, there was some short-term whipsaw movement, but the overall direction did not change much. Currently, on the one-hour chart, the price is still oscillating around the box range. For the daytime strategy, observe the resistance around 2980. I personally believe that a rebound to break the high within the day is unlikely; the overall trend is still corrective. Stay bearish for the day.
Ethereum: Short at 2954, target 2854, with a 40-point stop loss #BTC #ETH

Ethereum daily chart shows that the previous candle closed bearish near the lower band, finding support there. Intraday, the market opened with a rebound. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the short-term moving averages are around the middle band. The MACD fast and slow lines are extending upward, with continued bullish volume. The KDJ on the daily chart is turning upward. On the hourly chart, the current price is steadily rising. Tonight, the outlook can continue to look for a bullish continuation.
Ethereum: Long at 3157, target 3217, stop 40 points

Every weekend I worry about some unexpected events. Although there were no obvious negative signals today, BTC's price still fell below $89,000. I'm not sure if it's due to concerns about Japan's interest rate hike starting next week. Besides Japan's rate hike, next week also features US non-farm payrolls and inflation data, which could all trigger market fluctuations. However, the key factor to watch is the market trend after the US stock market opens tomorrow. After all, cryptocurrencies don't have their own narrative and are still highly synchronized with tech stocks.
As long as weekend pri

Saturday was spent so quietly. I was initially a bit worried that Oracle Bone inscriptions might cause pessimism to rise over the weekend, but in reality, even if they did, it’s not serious. Bitcoin remained in a very small range of fluctuation. But next week is uncertain. There are three important data releases: first is Tuesday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Everyone knows how important labor data is. Powell himself mentioned that the main reason for considering a rate cut in December is the poor labor data.
So, Non-Farm Payrolls remain the most important data right now, mainly focusing on the unemplo

The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 has concluded. Overall, it did not have a significant impact on the market. According to the dot plot, the stance is somewhat more accommodative compared to September, but it still lags behind market expectations by a considerable margin. However, it's okay; the biggest uncertainty for 2026 is that Powell has been replaced by Hsu. The June dot plot after the transition will be more important.
Powell's speech, apart from being somewhat dismissive of a rate cut in January, did not show any hawkish signals. He was even quite optimistic about inflation, bel

I remember a joke from Wall Street: if Powell's speech starts with G (Good afternoon), then go long; if it starts with H (Hello everyone), then go short.

The Fed has now entered garbage time, or a transition period of the game.
With Hassett surfacing the surface, Powell is now in a state of caretaking, in this context, he does not dare to be too aggressive, such as cutting interest rates by 50bp, and will not stop cutting interest rates directly, and a 25bp cut is the best
The current situation is very interesting, the nominees from both parties in the council are evenly matched.
It is precisely because he is at such an awkward political juncture that Powell can only hold the shield of data, but it leads to a big problem, the shelf life of this

20251209 US Stock Market Pre-Market Observations
1. All three major indexes closed lower last night, but the declines were manageable. This is normal anxiety ahead of an FOMC meeting. The market appears hesitant near historical highs, anxious about macro risks materializing this week.
2. Nasdaq trading volume surged to 8.3 billion shares, above average, yet the index only dipped slightly. This kind of high-volume stagnation usually means shares are being intensively exchanged at highs. More notably, the proportion of zero-day-to-expiry options exceeded 60% again, indicating massive intraday sp