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The takes about prediction markets “not being gambling”
are honestly wild.
They’re not treated as gambling
because of a regulatory distinction not because of “skill” or “research.”
They’re structured as p2p futures contracts and regulated (for now) under the CFTC.
Same activity.
Different wrapper.
So be honest:
do you actually think this is about modeling outcomes,
or just a loophole that happens to exist today?