The US dollar has indeed had a tough year, with a nearly 10% decline, marking the worst performance since 2017. There are mainly two driving factors behind this: first, Trump's tariff policies have shattered the image of the dollar as a "safe haven"; second, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have outpaced other central banks globally. The market generally believes that this weakness will continue into next year.

For those of us involved in cryptocurrencies, this situation can be understood from two perspectives:

**Superficially, it’s a direct positive.** A depreciating dollar makes assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are priced in USD, appear relatively cheaper, potentially attracting more international capital inflows.

**But the real key lies in the underlying logic.** It’s important to understand why the dollar is weakening. If it’s due to a normal economic cycle causing orderly depreciation, then it’s genuinely bullish for the crypto market. However, if the dollar’s decline is driven by a weakened Fed’s independence, or aggressive easing for political reasons, the situation changes—this could trigger inflation fears and a credit crisis, leading to a sell-off in all risk assets, with crypto market volatility being amplified.

An interesting phenomenon worth noting is that international investors are starting to hedge against the dollar risk in US stocks, indicating that the dollar’s credit foundation is loosening. Many of these alternative capital flows are turning their attention to cryptocurrencies.

My advice is to focus on these key points:

**Keep an eye on the US Dollar Index (DXY)**—it’s a barometer of global risk sentiment.

**Clarify the true reason behind the dollar’s weakness**—whether it’s driven by economic fundamentals or political factors.

**Maintain flexible positions**—until the macro outlook becomes clearer, don’t overcommit, to avoid being repeatedly shaken by market expectations.

In essence, the dollar’s depreciation has opened a window for crypto assets. Whether it’s a tailwind or a storm outside depends ultimately on whether the Fed can withstand political pressure. The personnel changes early next year will be the most critical window to watch.