Based on recent market performance, Ethereum has shown signs of gradually raising lows, but to truly initiate a substantial upward trend, two strict conditions must be met.

The first condition is crucial — the price must complete a full upward structure from a simple "raising lows" to a "lows + lows" pattern, rather than just a technical rebound within a downtrend channel. The second condition is a defensive line: the 2980-3000 zone must not be broken through by a large bearish candle this week; otherwise, the entire gradual bottoming pattern will collapse immediately, leading to a retest of the 2895-2830 area.

From a technical perspective, the outlook looks decent — the 4-hour moving averages are aligned bullishly, and after the MACD golden cross, volume is gently expanding, signaling a quiet but steady effort. In the short term, watch 3055; if broken, the breakout zone at 3090-3120 becomes the next target. However, frankly, the bullish momentum is still relatively weak. If Bitcoin cannot sustain volume expansion, Ethereum's upward space will be limited, likely resulting in a stepwise slow rise combined with sideways consolidation at higher levels.

There are two trading strategies: aggressive traders can enter with a small position when the 2980-3000 support is tested and holds, with a stop loss at 2960; more conservative traders can wait for a volume breakout above 3120 before following in. If the price unexpectedly breaks below 2980 and the hourly chart cannot recover, exit the long position immediately, with a target of 2895-2830.