#比特币价格走势 Polymarket data reflects a clear shift in market expectations. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has quickly dropped from a high level to 25%, a decline worth noting. Meanwhile, the probability of falling below $80,000 has risen to 22%. The inverse movement of these probabilities indicates that market sentiment is being re-priced.

From on-chain fund flow analysis, changes in these predictive probabilities often lag behind large holder movements. Key signals to watch include: 1. the inflow and outflow of whale wallets, 2. unusual activity in exchange net inflow data, and 3. changes in the futures contract position structure. If large cold wallets show signs of transferring to exchanges, caution is advised for potential selling pressure. Conversely, if institutions continue to accumulate at low levels, it may just be short-term emotional fluctuation.

Liquidity tends to be weaker at the end of the year, and probability fluctuations in market predictions can be easily driven by small amounts of funds, so there's no need to over-interpret a single indicator. The key is to observe what real on-chain funds are doing.