#比特币价格走势 Seeing the data on Polymarket, I feel a certain way. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped from a high level to 25%, which actually reflects a real change in market sentiment—from frenzy to gradually returning to rationality.

This fluctuation reminds me of many investors' stories. Some keep adding to their positions amid high expectations, only to endure significant volatility; others maintain discipline and manage their positions to cope with uncertainty. The difference isn't about choosing a direction, but whether they leave room for flexibility.

A probability dropping to one-quarter isn't bad news; rather, it's a reminder—the market is saying, don't put all your chips on a single probabilistic event. Whether Bitcoin ultimately breaks $100,000 or not, those who understand risk control and stick to a long-term mindset are often better equipped to navigate each cycle calmly.

The wisdom of asset allocation lies in accepting uncertainty and hedging it with rational position management. This winter, instead of chasing probabilities, it's better to first ask yourself whether your investment portfolio can withstand the test.