#比特币价格走势与预测 Seeing the data update on Polymarket, I am thinking that many people might feel anxious — the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped from higher expectations to 11%, and the risk of falling below $80,000 is also increasing. This shift in market sentiment is indeed worth our careful consideration.

But rather than fixating on these probability figures, I am more concerned about everyone's mindset and positions. What does the adjustment in market expectations indicate? It suggests that uncertainty is increasing, and this is exactly when we need to exercise restraint. Remember, true long-term investors never rely on predictions of price movements at a specific point in time to formulate their strategies.

What I want to remind you is: if you are holding a heavy position at high levels, now is a good time to review your asset allocation. Ask yourself, does your current position truly match your risk tolerance? Have you left enough safety margin? What does the 11% probability mean? It means there is an 89% chance that you won't reach that target within the year. At this moment, caution is not cowardice but wisdom.

Rather than guessing what to do next, it’s better to review your current allocation. Diversify risk, control the proportion of a single asset, and leave room for your decisions — these seemingly simple practices often become the most effective protection during market turning points. Long-term wealth builders are always those who can hold steady.