#预测市场 Seeing CZ's year-end Q&A, I recall several cycles we've gone through over the years. The prediction market sector was mentioned, and honestly, it reminded me of how many projects were overhyped during the 2017 bull run. Back then, some people confidently claimed that a certain direction was the future. But what happened? After the big waves, only a few survived.

But this time is different. CZ made it very clear—next year’s US election will be a litmus test, and the true key to victory lies in long-term competition. I've heard this kind of statement countless times: short-term events create opportunities, but long-term execution determines life or death. I saw ICO projects raise sky-high funds based on a hot topic in 2016, only to vanish two years later; I also saw quiet teams hold their ground during bear markets and eventually become pillars of the ecosystem.

What moved me most was his assessment of cryptocurrency penetration—single-digit percentages, or even less than 1% when measured by wealth. I’ve seen this data point iterate several times. In 2013, everyone said Bitcoin was the future, but by the end of the 2021 bear market, we were still repeating the same argument. It’s not that he was wrong; rather, the conclusion that there’s “several orders of magnitude of growth potential” requires how many cycles to truly verify.

Regarding stablecoins, I see real progress. From USDT’s monopoly to now diversified competition, that’s genuine product iteration. But when it comes to prediction markets and AI Agent trading, my feeling is: history will repeat itself, but it will never be exactly the same. Execution and persistence will always be the most scarce.